The former Delhi L-G says absence of Prime Minister Modi as the face of the campaign will go against the BJP while the SP with allies will gain clear majority on its own

NEW DELHI – Former lieutenant governor (L-G) of Delhi Najeeb Jung predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would lose the assembly elections underway in Uttar Pradesh while Samajwadi Party (SP) and its allies will get a clear majority.

In an interview to veteran journalist, Karan Thapar, on The Wire, Jung said the Samajwadi Party and its allies would cross 202 seats to muster a majority on their own without having to join hands with other parties.

Explaining the logic behind his conclusion, he said that the absence of Prime Minister Modi as the face of the party campaign will be one of the reasons for the BJP’s defeat.

Jung, who is also a former vice-chancellor of the Jamia Millia Islamia (JMI), identified four critical reasons why the BJP is heading towards defeat in UP. The most important, he said, is the fact that Narendra Modi is not the face of the BJP campaign but, in his place, the party is being fronted by Yogi Adityanath. Jung said if Modi had been the face, the outcome could have been different.

He cited the anti-incumbency factor as another reason for the possible outcome against the BJP, saying the resentment and anger among  people against the government due to the farm laws, the menace of stray cows and unemployment. These things have caused the trauma that has not been forgotten, Jung said.

He added that Adityanath’s communal campaign and speeches aimed at polarising the electorate has not resonated with the people.

On the other hand, he hailed Akhilesh Yadav’s handling of the Hindutva challenge — both what he says and doesn’t say — and compared it with sixth century BC Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu.

According to Jung, the Samajwadi Party will not only get Yadav votes but will also attract a sizable chunk of non-Yadav votes. 80% of Muslims will vote for the party. In 2017 58% of Muslims had voted for the SP.

While Brahmins are unlikely to vote for the SP, a sizable chunk would gravitate away from the BJP possibly towards the Congress, Jung observed, adding that non-Jatav Dalits could vote in bigger numbers for Mayawati’s BSP and the Congress.