By Abdul Bari Masoud

New Delhi: Despite predictions by “pro-government media networks” that the BJP would win the vital Uttar Pradesh state, the Hyderabad-based Atmasakshi Group predicted that the Samajwadi Party will wrest power from the BJP by obtaining 235-240 seats, while the BJP’s total would fall from 312 to 138-140. The BSP is expected to gain 19-23 seats, the Congress 12-16, and others 1-2.

The exit poll results, according to the organization Atmasakshi, were based on samples collected on the ground/field and did not include digital or telephonic samples. The group claimed to have gathered up to 316,000 samples.

Atmasakshi’s   prediction for UP assembly election, which held in seven phases, BJP  may lose the  elections as there is nearly 7 percentage point gap  between BJP and its closed rival SP.

It’s projection of vote share are as follows:

BJP = 32.5%

SP = 39.5%

BSP = 14%

INC= 10%

OTHERS = 4%

The group’s head is Murthy who is psephologist, engineer and political strategist.

It also predicted results for Punjab, Uttrakhand  and Goa where elections were held  along with UP.  In all three states, it forecasts a clear victory for Congress.

Battle ground Punjab (2022)

No of samples taken = 74200

 Projection of vote share

INC= 32.5%

AAP = 29.5%

SAD = 25.5%

BJP =9.5%

OTHERS = 3%

Projection of MLA seats

Total no of MLA seats = 117

INC =   58-61

AAP= 34-38

SAD+ =18-21

BJP+ =4-5

Others =1-2

 BATTLE GROUND UTTARAKHAND (2022)

No of samples taken = 49800

Projection of Vote Share

INC = 46%

BJP = 40.5%

AAP = 9.5%

OTHERS = 4%

Projection of MLA Seats

Total no of MLA seats = 70

BJP = 20-21

INC =43-47

AAP =2-3

Others=1-2

BATTLE GROUND GOA (2022)

No of Samples Taken = 22100

Projection of Vote Share

INC= 45%

BJP = 34%

AAP =8.5%

Others = 12.5%

Projection of MLA Seats

Total no of MLA seats = 40

INC= 21-22

BJP= 9-10

AAP= 2-3

Others= 5-6

The Group also provided seat-wise results in all the four states.

It is to be noted that the TV Channels exit polls were unanimous in forecasting that the BJP would win the crucial Uttar Pradesh state but there were huge differences.