A moment of reckoning for the Opposition, a test of our leaders, whether they are just for personal promotion or genuinely care for the people in whose name they swear.

PROF RAM PUNIYANI 

THE assembly election results of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttrakhand, Manipur and Goa gave victory to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in four states while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) came to power in Punjab. In Punjab, the AAP seems to have won as there was a serious infighting in the Congress and the SAD’s poor record of the past.

In Goa, the BJP was greatly helped in overcoming incumbency by the Opposition disunity as apart from the Congress and the AAP; Mamata’s Trinamool threw their hats into the ring. In Uttarakhand and Manipur, the massive electoral machine put up by the BJP had competition from the Congress, despite incumbency going against BJP.

UP has been the real battle ground where BJP won convincingly. All over the country and more particularly in UP, the adverse impact of demonetisation, loss of employment, farmers issue has broken the back of the people. The mass migration of poor labourers with sudden lockdown due to Corona and lack of oxygen, proper healthcare further worsened the plight of the people all over and more particularly in UP. This is also the state where rape and murders in Unnao and Hathras shook the country. This is the state where the farmers were crushed under the SUV by Ashish Mishra, son of the Central minister. This is the state where the new policies and polarisation around beef-cow has led to the huge number of stray cattle destroying the crops. This is the state which has slid down badly in the human indices during the last few years.

Lot of discussion in the caste equations is done in this state. Before the elections, many of OBC leaders left the BJP to join the broad coalition led by Samajwadi Party (SP), Akhilesh Yadav. The crowd at the rallies of Akhilesh convinced most impartial journalists that the BJP will be thrown out of power. Many of the ground level journalists got the feedback that Akhilesh is sure to win the elections. Then what happened?

While most of the caste calculations and anti-incumbency were favouring the SP, the BJP had some deeper factors working for it. These were communal polarisation and efficient communication set up by the RSS combine was well in place. Let us first realise that BJP is part of a larger conglomerate, led by the progenitor of Hindu nationalism, the RSS. Every time there are elections all the pracharaks (now in thousands) and swayamsevaks (now in lakhs) join in the electoral efforts. RSS Sar Sahkaryawahak Arun Kumar convened a high-level meeting of all the Sangh frontal organisations and asked them to help BJP in its poll campaign.

And this time even the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat intervened to ask about the Hindutva programmes (Ram Temple and Kashi corridor) and nationalist efforts (Balakot) are highlighted and after second phase of elections he called upon the RSS affiliates to intensify their efforts as the BJP seemed to have done very badly in these two phases. Adverse caste equations were undone by deeper polarisation. Through social engineering they already have won over a substantial number of downtrodden sections. This conglomerate has also developed a huge network of communication to reach their message to the last women/man. It is remarkable how in a quiet way their message, countering rising prices, unemployment, farmers travails, the cattle nuisance and constructed fear of minorities passes through various conveyor belts to reach the people in far off places.

During 2017 elections, BJP+ was focusing on the BJP being the only party which can take up the cause of Hindus, as the SP and the Congress both were projected to be working for Muslims. This time around, Yogi Adityanath came up with the threat posed by Gazva-e-Hind and efforts of Muslims to convert India into a Muslim majority state. Yogi in particular and Modi occasionally kept targeting Muslim minorities. Modi targeted the SP by saying that cycle (SP’s election symbol) has been used for exploding bombs. Association of terrorism with Muslims, though untrue, was regularly propagated. Yogi kept harping on the association of the SP with Muslims and Muslims with mafia, crime and terrorism. Kairana was used as a dog whistle. Muzafarnagar violence was deliberately associated with Muslims. His infamous 80% versus 20% was a new low in divisive direction. His use of words Abbajan for Mulayam Singh Yadav was deliberate to promote the divisive agenda.

What will be its impact on 2024 elections is difficult to say despite Modi claiming these results show the pattern for 2024. It is true that at present there does not seem to be a credible national alternative which can halt the rise of divisive politics, erosion of our democratic institutions, growing economic disparity, the increase in unemployment and the worsening plight of farmers. Religious minorities are being forced to live the intimidated life in the proliferating ghettoes with declining citizenship rights.

The overall fall of the indices of the country on the scale of democratic freedoms and freedom of religion is alarming. The depth to which communal politics has sunk in society is very frightening. The mechanisms developed by communal forces to shape the opinions of the people at large are remarkable. The godi (pliable) media, social media, IT cell and fake news have added on to the foundations dug by the sectarian nationalists.

One of the major lessons of the assembly election results is that fragmented Opposition cannot take on the mighty electoral might of the BJP-RSS. The claim of every opposition political force to project her/him as the alternative is the very undoing of the process whereby communal forces can be defeated and the country can come on the path laid down in the Constitution. Can all the Opposition parties begin to form a coalition with a minimum common programme based on the values of the constitution and the concept of welfare? The leadership can be decided after the elections with the biggest component getting the PM and other components having due presentation in the leadership position.

It’s time all those who stand to uphold Gandhi, Ambedkar and Bhagat Singh came together in the spirit of accommodation. The interests of the country, the people, the deprived and suffering, the people whose dignity is being trampled day in and day out is to be kept as the major focus in the alliance. It is a test of our leaders, whether they are just for personal promotion or genuinely care for the people in whose name they swear.