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The Modi government must restart the reforms process

The Modi government must restart the reforms process

Frank F. Islam

Frank F. Islam

For India to grow and flourish, it should also focus on jobs, education, healthcare and climate change

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s victory in the general elections is a testament to his immense popularity across the country and his supreme talent as a campaigner. His sweeping victory gives Modi a mandate to pursue a bold agenda. As an Indian American who has followed Indian politics and its economy closely from afar, here are my suggested policies and priorities for an agenda the PM should implement in his second term.

First and foremost, the PM would be wise to focus on jobs, education and healthcare, as well as climate change. Progress on all these areas depends on completing the economic reforms his government started in 2014. Therefore, one of the initial things the government should do is to recommit to reforms. Early in the first term, former finance minister Arun Jaitley initiated and completed reforms in key areas, including reforming the bankruptcy code, opening coal mining and railway sectors and allowing foreign investments in construction projects. However, after implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the government’s enthusiasm for reforms seems to have waned altogether. According to the Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies, “not a single reform” has been completed since the GST was introduced in July 2017. So, it is imperative that the new finance minister begins her term by renewing and intensifying the pace of the reform by going ahead with land reform and deregulation of labour.

At the moment, unemployment is the biggest challenge the world’s seventh largest economy is facing. Nearly 20 million youth are ready to enter the work force every year in India, which is a third of the population of Great Britain and Italy. To address this influx to the work force, the country needs to create nearly 55,000 jobs every day for the foreseeable future. That is a daunting, but not impossible task. To create jobs on that scale, the economy will need to grow by double digits. China did that consistently in the 1990s and 2000s. As recently as 2007, the Chinese economy grew at 14%.

A big road block to achieving double-digit growth, however, is India’s poor infrastructure, which is not where it should be in spite of efforts by successive governments in the past two decades to create a world-class infrastructure.

During this election cycle, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) promised to spend nearly $1.5 trillion to improve the infrastructure. If that money is spent judiciously, with a Marshall Plan-like blueprint, it will be a game changer for India. Almost certainly, India will be dependent on foreign investors for infrastructure money. But to attract investments at such a large scale, the government should tick all the remaining boxes in the reform to-do lists.

Two other key areas where the government needs to multiply investments are education and healthcare. According to the World Bank, India ranks a miserable 143rd among countries in government spending on education. In order to develop a highly skilled work force, which is a prerequisite for meeting the overall developmental goals, public spending on basic, vocational and technical education is an absolutely necessity.

Just as with education, the next government must have a big vision and a large-scale programme for healthcare. From preventive and prenatal care to greater access to healthcare in the rural areas, the challenges are many. The Ayushman Bharat Yojana scheme is expected to help as many as 500 million people. It is a great first step. In addressing healthcare challenges, PM Modi can enlist a huge pool of physicians of Indian origin around the globe, who are willing, ready and available to help.

Another big challenge on the economic front that will have to be tackled is climate change. India must become a leader in combating climate change related issues. Investing in solar and wind energy, as well as implementing other eco-friendly initiatives, is not just a good environmental measure, it is also a good economic policy.

Last, but not the least, the most disappointing occurrence during Modi 1.0 was the alienation of India’s hundreds of millions of religious minorities and Dalits. Modi 2.0 would do well to call for and take necessary steps to rein in the fringe elements. Modi’s call for a strong, fair, just, and inclusive India is a clear signal that he understands that the survival of the republic rests on the foundation of tolerance.

I look forward to seeing the PM enable India to achieve its potential by encouraging and embracing the country’s diversity and inclusiveness. Diversity is vital in keeping India’s democracy healthy and vibrant. As an Indian American, I have had the privilege of living in the two largest — and I would add greatest — democracies in the world. That has been a gift. A greater gift would be to see the Indian democracy grow and flourish during Modi 2.0 under the governance of a truly democratic leader who would stand in stark contrast to the more autocratic and dictatorial national leaders who are emerging on the world stage today.

 

Frank F Islam is an entrepreneur, civic leader, and thought leader based in Washington DC.The views expressed here are personal

Universal Basic Income a great idea, but needs to be tested

Universal Basic Income a great idea, but needs to be tested

Frank F. Islam

Frank F. Islam

By Frank F. Islam

In this national election year, the concept of a universal basic income has become a political football. The opposition Congress Party is promising to implement a “nationwide minimum income for the poor” and Prime Minister Narendra Modis administration is proposing a “basic income for poor farmers.” What is not needed on this very serious and important topic is the scoring of political points. What is needed is a careful and considered non-partisan assessment by an independent commission to determine whether and how a universal basic income of some type could enhance the future of India and its people.

economy

Factors that should be examined as part of that assessment include: the concept itself; the reasons for its increase in popularity; a review of where universal basic income has been implemented and the results achieved; the projected costs and benefits; and the feasibility of implementing such an approach here in India.

Fortunately, there are numerous sources that can be referred to in order to begin conducting such an assessment. They include: The research and writings of BIEN (Basic Income Earth Network), an international group comprised of knowledgeable individuals and organizations interested in basic income; the Indian Ministry of Finance’s 2016-2017 Economic Survey; and, India’s Universal Basic Income: Bedeviled by the Details, a publication of Carnegie India released in February 2018.

BIEN defines universal basic income (UBI) as “a periodic cash payment unconditionally delivered to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement”. An important point of emphasis in this definition is no “work requirement.”

The current interest in UBI in India was sparked by the 2016-2017 Economic Survey (Survey) which devoted a full chapter to the topic. The Survey concluded that India’s present approach to dealing with poverty was ineffective and its welfare schemes were poorly designed and targeted. It advocated replacing them with UBI which had three components: universality, unconditionality, and agency.

The Survey estimated that an annual transfer of Rs 7,620 to approximately 75 per cent of the Indian population would bring the poverty rate to less than 1 per cent. It projected that the cost, if all existing welfare and income support programmes were eliminated, would be 4.9 per cent of India’s annual GDP.

The Survey does not call for full universality. For political and fiscal reasons, it advises not making payments to the top 25 per cent of India’s income distribution.

UBI demonstration projects and cash transfer programmes in numerous low to medium income countries have shown promising results. In addition, developing countries such as Canada, the Netherlands, and Finland have experimented with UBI.

Finland conducted its experiment from January 2017 to December 2018 with approximately 2,000 unemployed citizens who received a regular monthly income that was not reduced if they secured employment. The initial findings of the study which were released in February of this year revealed that those in the test group were not more likely to get work than those in the control group but they “reported better well-being in every way.” Despite these outcomes, Finland is not moving forward at this point to a national roll-out of UBI.

India has had one small UBI experiment in Madhya Pradesh. The study funded by UNICEF with SEWA (Self-Employed Women’s Association) as the coordinator found that those who received cash payments preferred them to subsidies and produced a range of much more positive results than those in the comparison groups. By 2022, if the small state of Sikkim moves forward with its announced plans to provide a basic payment to all its citizens, India will have the largest full pilot of UBI in the world’s history.

There is much that is known about UBI; there is much more, however, that needs to be learned. Implementation of UBI on a large-scale basis is a theoretical construct and not an operational reality. Given this, it is premature to make massive changes that could produce unintended consequences or undesirable outcomes. The proper course, as recommended in the report from Carnegie India, is to “…run one or several large-scale experimental evaluations.” Carnegie goes on to note,”…such trials can generate new empirical evidence to inform the growing UBI debate and reveal the most effective role for unconditional transfers in India’s welfare architecture.”

As the saying goes, “Great ideas need landing gear as well as wings.” I believe UBI is a great idea. By taking it out of the political arena and letting a non-partisan commission take the time, do the study, and produce the recommendations that are required, India’s leaders can ensure that that its eventual UBI policy can take off, fly and land safely.

(The writer is an entrepreneur, civic and thought leader based in Washington DC. The views expressed are personal)

Modi on ground breaking visit to Israel – first by an Indian PM

Modi on ground breaking visit to Israel – first by an Indian PM

Prime Minister Narendra Modi being received by the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, on his arrival, at Ben Gurion Airport, in Tel Aviv, Israel (Photo Credit PIB)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi being received by the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, on his arrival, at Ben Gurion Airport, in Tel Aviv, Israel (Photo Credit PIB)

Tel Aviv (IANS) Narendra Modi on Tuesday became the first-ever Indian Prime Minister to step on Israeli soil, undertaking a ‘ground breaking’ visit and declaring cooperation in tackling terrorism, while his host Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed that they want to forge a historic partnership with India for which even sky is not the limit.

Israel rolled out a red carpet welcome as the Air India One aircraft landed at Tel Aviv’s International Airport on a warm afternoon with Netanyahu setting aside protocol and receiving Modi, who is making the visit 25 years after India established diplomatic ties with the Jewish nation, with a handshake and a hug.

Normally Israeli Prime Ministers go to the airport to receive only the US Presidents and a few western leaders. As Gujarat Chief Minister Modi has visited Israel on an earlier occasion.

“Excellency and friends, my visit marks a path breaking journey of engagement, a journey that we are excited to undertake together for the good of our people and societies. As we march together a strong and resilient partnership with Israel will be my intent and focus,” he said in a brief speech after he was welcomed warmly by his host.

“It is my singular honour to be the first Prime Minister to undertake this ground breaking visit to Israel,” Modi, clad in an off-white bandhgala suit, said in a brief speech to reciprocate the welcome given by Netanyahu and his cabinet.

“I want to thank my friend Prime Minister Netanyahu for the invitation and receiving me with so much warmth,” he said, adding this symbolises the centuries-old links between the two societies.

India, he said, has maintained a strong and sustained upswing in the ties after establishing full relationship 25 years ago.

He said people of Israel have built a nation on democratic principles and nurtured it with hard work, grit and spirit of innovation. They have marched on regardless of adversity and converted challenges into opportunities. “India applauds your achievements,” he said.

He also recalled that on July 4, 41 years ago, Netanyahu’s elder brother, Yonatan was part of the commandos in the Operation Entebbe in Uganda to rescue over 100 Israeli civilians in the airport, and in the process sacrificed his life. He became an inspiration for the younger generation.

Modi said in India, a very old civilisation, there were 800 million people below the age of 35 years and they were the driving force and propelling his vision to transform India, its industry, its economy, its way of doing business and its interface with the world.

Modi said in India’s path of sustained high growth and all round development India counts Israel among its important partners. They need to rely on science, technology, innovation and hard technical education to overcome the developmental challenges that are common to both the countries.

He said alongside building a partnership for shared economic prosperity, India and Israel are also cooperating to secure their societies against common threats such as terrorism. “A progressive partnership in all these areas would share the scope of my conversation with the Prime Minister, my friend Netanyahu,” he said.

Modi said he was also keen to interact with the Indian diaspora in Israel, including a large number of Jews of Indian origin who have enriched both the societies.

In his welcome address, Netanyahu said Israel has been waiting for a long time for this visit. “Apka swagat hai mere dost. We have been waiting almost 70 years, in fact, because your’s is a truly historic visit. It is the first time that an Indian Prime Minister is visiting Israel. We receive you with open arms. We love India. We admire your culture, your democracy and your commitment to progress.”

Recalling his first meeting with Modi three years ago at the United Nations, Netanyahu said both of them agreed to breakdown the remaining walls between India and Israel.

“We shook each others’ hand and forged a historic relationship. We met again in Paris and since then we have spoken many times on the phone. But I remember my friend what you said in that first meeting.

“You said when it comes to India-Israel relations, the sky is the limit. But actually my friend the sky isn’t the limit because today even our space programmes are working towards reaching even greater heights,” he said.

The host Prime Minister said that the ties between the talented and innovative peoples of both the countries is natural. “It is so natural that we can ask what took so long for them to blossom. Well, it took a meeting of minds and hearts. it took a commitment of our governments we have that today,” he said.

Netanyahu said in this visit Modi’s ‘Make in India’ initiative meets his ‘Make with India’ policy. “We are setting up a $40 million innovation fund as the seed for even greater cooperation on technology between us,” he said.

Hailing him as a great leader of India and a great world leader, Netanyahu said, “Your visit to Israel is a testimony to that.”

Earlier, the two leaders inspected a guard of honour by Israeli defence forces in honour of Modi. Netanyahu introduced his ministers, officials, including the present and former ambassadors of Israel in India and his National Security Advisor.

Bangladesh PM in Goa for bilateral talks, Bimstec

Bangladesh PM in Goa for bilateral talks, Bimstec

Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes to the BRICS Leaders’ Restricted Meeting at the BRICS Summit venue, in Goa

Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes to the BRICS Leaders’ Restricted Meeting at the BRICS Summit venue, in Goa

Benaulim (Goa):(IANS) Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Sunday arrived here ahead of the BRICS-Bimstec Outreach Summit and a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Hasina landed in Goa at 10:30 a.m. and was greeted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Honoured to host you PM Hasina for BRICS-BIMSTEC Outreach Summit. We cherish the strong ties between India and Bangladesh and applaud your role,” Modi said.

The two leaders will hold a meeting later in the day to discuss a wide spectrum of bilateral relations.

Hasina will attend a ceremonial lunch hosted by Goa Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar for all participants of BIMSTEK, before the heads of the member states hold talks over related issues.

As host of this year’s BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Summit, India, as is the practice, can invite neighbouring countries to join in for an outreach summit.

Following the September 18 terror attack at an Indian Army camp in Uri town of Jammu and Kashmir, which left 19 soldiers dead, India chose to invite countries belonging to the Bimstec grouping over those of the Saarc.

Countries belonging to the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) are India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand and Sri Lanka.

New Delhi has blamed Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group for the Uri attack and launched a diplomatic blitz to isolate Islamabad in the international community.

The invitation to Bimstec countries instead of the Saarc nations is being seen as another step in this direction.

Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives are the members of the South Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) which are not the members of Bimstec.

China’s Xi urges BRICS countries to cement confidence in growth

China’s Xi urges BRICS countries to cement confidence in growth

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with other BRICS leaders at a meeting, on the sidelines of G20 Turkey 2015, in Turkey

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with other BRICS leaders at a meeting, on the sidelines of G20 Turkey 2015, in Turkey

Antalya:(IANS) Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sunday called on the BRICS countries to strengthen confidence in growth and boost coordination within the emerging-market bloc so as to jointly cope with global challenges.

Acknowledging that the five countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are facing increasing complexities and difficulties and experiencing slower growth, Xi proposed that they upgrade their economic structures for long-term development.

“China stands ready to share development opportunities with other BRICS countries and lift our economic cooperation,” the Chinese president said at a BRICS leaders’ meeting held in the Turkish resort city of Antalya on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

“Pure gold fears no fire,” Xi observed.

“As long as we hold firm confidence and strengthen coordination, the BRICS countries will surely sail through winds and waves,” he was quoted as saying by Xinhua.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, Russian President Vladimir Putin and South African President Jacob Zuma attended the meeting.

The five leaders strongly condemned Friday’s terror attacks in Paris, and reaffirmed their commitment to international cooperation in combating terrorism.

They also called for early implementation of the 2010 reform plan of the International Monetary Fund.