by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rituraj Baruah,
Mumbai : After reaching new landmarks in the last couple of trading sessions, the key Indian equity indices are likely to witness another eventful week (June 16-20), with major quarterly earnings and a key macro-economic data point, the Wholesale Price Index, due in the next few days.
According to market observers, further developments in the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China also would set the cues for the global markets.
“The markets next week would look forward to the earnings season as larger companies such as HUL (Hindustan Unilever), Bajaj group of companies will come out with their results,” said Devendra Nevgi, founder and Principal Partner at Delta Global Partners.
According to Geojit Financial Services’ Head of Research, Vinod Nair: “Market is expecting 19 per cent growth in PAT (profit after tax) for Sensex index stocks and 14.7 per cent for Nifty50 index stocks in Q1, FY19 compared to a washout in last quarter.”
“From here on market trend will largely depend on progress of results season,” he said.
Gaurav Jain, Director of Hem Securities said: “We will continue to see stock-specific approach as heavyweights like HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Ashok Leyland, Zee Entertainment, Ultratech Cement, MindTree, Bajaj Finance, and Kotak Mahindra Bank are scheduled to report their quarterly earnings.”
On the macro front, the government will announce wholesale price inflation (WPI) for June 2018 on Monday, July 16, Jain added.
Further, on the global side, markets would be hoping for easing of trade related issues between the US and China, said Sanjeev Zarbade, Vice President for Research at Kotak Securities.
Noting the significance of oil prices, Zarbade said: “Crude oil prices have corrected a bit and further softening in prices would be positive for global markets”.
In the week ended Friday, fall in crude oil prices was a major factor for the positive trend in the global and domestic equity markets.
As per Delta Global Partners’ Nevgi, the fall in crude prices and weaker US dollar would help the sentiments in the rupee market.
On Friday, the Indian rupee closed at 68.53, strengthening by 35 paise from its previous week’s close of 68.88 per greenback.
Talking on the investor sentiments in the Indian equity market, Nevgi told IANS,the support comes from domestic investors as foreign ones continue to be net sellers.
In the week gone by, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrip worth Rs 1,801.65 crore, while the domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 2,288.08 crore.
During the upcoming week, Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities feels, “further upsides are likely, once the immediate resistance band of 11,078-11,171 (Nifty50) is taken out.”
The level of 10,893 points would be a crucial support for the Nifty50 on the National Stock Exchange, he added.
On Friday, the Nifty50 closed at 11,018.90 points — up 246.25 points or 2.29 per cent — from its previous week’s close.
The Sensex on BSE rose by 883.77 points or 2.48 per cent to close at 36,541.63 points on a weekly basis.
On Thursday, the barometer 30-scrip Sensex touched a record high of 36,699.53 points, only to surpass the level the very next day and set a fresh all-time high of 36,740.07 points.
It had also set a new closing high of 36,548.41 points on Thursday.
With another eventful week expected to follow, these instances of fresh benchmarks and landmarks, may not end here.
(Rituraj Baruah can be contacted at rituraj.b@ians.in )
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rohit Vaid,
Mumbai : The upcoming quarterly results season, along with macro-economic data points on industrial output and inflation, will determine the trajectory of the key Indian equity indices in the week ahead.
According to market analysts, developments on further imposition of trade protectionist measures between the US and China coupled with volatility in crude oil prices and the rupee’s movement against the US dollar will also affect investor sentiments.
The Q1, 2018-19, earnings result season will kick off from next week. IT major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is expected to be the first bluechip firm to come out with its Q1 result on July 10.
Other companies like Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Cyient and Indian Overseas Bank are also expected to announce their Q1 earning results in the coming week.
“The markets next week would look forward to the commencement of the earnings season with large caps like TCS, Infosys and banks like IndusInd and Kotak about to declare their earnings,” Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.
“The IT sector earnings will be in focus, given its recent performance, INR weakness and the buoyant US economy.”
Apart from the Q1 results, investors will look forward to the macro-economic data points of IIP (Index of Industrial Production), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and India’s trade figures.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI on July 12.
“CPI inflation and IIP data will be keenly watched, consensus expects June CPI rise to 5.2 per cent versus 4.87 per cent and May IIP is expected improve to 5.9 per cent versus 4.9 per cent,” Geojit Financial Services’ Research Head Vinod Nair told IANS.
Besides, the movement of Indian rupee against the US dollar and the direction of foreign fund flows will also set the course for the key indices.
On a weekly basis, the Indian rupee closed at 68.88, weaker by 41 paise from its previous close of 68.47 per greenback.
“Over the next week, we expect the India rupee to trade within a range of 68.40-69 levels on spot,” Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, told IANS.
“The Indian rupee is being driven by crude oil prices, weakness in Chinese yuan due to the ongoing tariff war between US and China, outflows from domestic equity and debt market and a hawkish US Fed.”
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrips worth Rs 2,455.44 crore during the July 3-6 period.
Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested Rs 2,737.04 crore, or $398.62 million from the equities segment on stock exchanges during the week ended on July 6.
However, on technical charts, the underlying short-term trend of the National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) Nifty50 remains positive.
“Technically, with the Nifty bouncing back from the crucial supports of 10,550 points, the underlying short term trend remains up,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.
“Further upsides are likely in the coming week once the immediate resistances of 10,816 points are taken out. A bigger move would open up for the Nifty once it is able to cross the recent intermediate highs of 10,929 points. Crucial supports to watch for any weakness are at 10,604 points.”
Last week, expectation of a healthy rural demand on the back of the government’s enhanced support for the farm sector and an uptrend in manufacturing activity as per macro-data had lifted the key indices.
However, escalation in the trade war tensions between the US and China limited the gains.
Index-wise, the wider NSE Nifty50 closed at 10,772.65 points — up 58.35 points or 0.54 per cent — from its previous close.
Similarly, the barometer 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE made gains. It rose by 234.38 points or 0.66 per cent to close at 35,657.86 points on a weekly basis.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rohit Vaid,
Mumbai : The Indian rupee’s movement, coupled with fluctuations in global crude oil prices, are expected to drive investor sentiments on the key domestic equity indices during the upcoming week.
Besides, equity market participants will monitor the monthly automobile sales data along with production figures for eight core industries (ECI) in June and the direction of foreign fund flows to gauge economic performance.
“The next week will be dominated by global markets’ sentiments, especially in the emerging markets and their currencies, the Indian rupee’s movements and the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) r government’s actions on this will be closely monitored,” Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.
“The sentiments towards sectors deriving USD revenue are expected to be positive. The large cap and quality bias in stock markets would continue, with the mid and small caps valuations not attractive enough for nibbling. Any fresh salvos fired in the ongoing global trade wars could dampen the sentiment.”
Lately, high crude oil prices and geopolitical developments have weakened the Indian rupee, which depreciated to touch its all-time low during the week just ended at the 69 per US dollar mark.
It closed at 68.47, weaker by 63 paise from its previous week’s close of 67.84 per greenback.
“Over the next couple of months, USD/INR may build a base between 67 and 69 on spot, before heading towards 71/72 before the FY19 draws to a close. Over the next week, a range of 67.80 to 68.80 can play out,” Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, told IANS.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrips worth Rs 1,380.94 crore during the week under review.
Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested in equities worth Rs 528.41 crore, or $79.66 million, in the week ended on June 29.
Apart from the rupee’s movement, investor sentiments will be driven by the monthly automobile sales figures as well as the ECI data and purchasing mangers index (PMI) readings.
On technical charts, further upsides are seen in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 during the initial period of next week.
“Technically, with the Nifty holding above the crucial supports of 10,550 points and bouncing back smartly on Friday, the bulls do seem to have an upper hand for the initial part of the coming week,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.
“Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 10,733 points level are taken out. Crucial supports to watch for any weakness are at 10,612 points.”
On a weekly basis, both the key Indian equity indices — S&P Bombat Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index (Sensex) and NSE Nifty 50 — declined for the first time in last five-weeks, as escalating trade war concerns along with rising crude oil prices and a weak Indian rupee eroded investor sentiments.
Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE fell by 266.12 points or 0.75 per cent to close at 35,423.48 points.
Similarly, the wider Nifty50 of the NSE closed the week in the red. It ended at 10,714.30 points — down 107.55 points or 0.99 per cent — from its previous close.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in )
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rituraj Baruah,
Mumbai : Global factors such as concerns over trade wars and further developments on tariffs, along with the decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to marginally increase oil production, would drive the domestic equity market in the week ahead.
According to market analysts, progress in the monsoon rains and the macro-economic data due later in the week would also give the market cues.
“The rise in oil prices after the modest supply increase by OPEC would dampen the sentiment in stocks, bonds and the FX (forex) markets,” Delta Global Partners’ Founder and Principal Partner Devendra Nevgi told IANS.
Global event risks, especially the developments on trade wars between the US and China, would be closely monitored, he said.
Geojit Financial Services’ Head of Research, Vinod Nair said: “Progressing monsoon and positive outlook on rural market is giving boost to the economy, which is already showing signs of improvement.”
However, the risk of downgrade in financial year 2019 earnings followed by weak fourth quarter earnings would test investors sentiment, Nair said.
Besides, cues from economic data like Consumer Price Index, Index of Industrial Production and Wholesale Price Index data to be released later in the week also would be a determining factor in the market movement, he added.
According to Equity99’s Senior Research Analyst, Rahul Sharma: “Stock specific action will remain the flavor of the week in an otherwise dull and direction-less trading market where investors look for global clues.”
Sector-wise, oil marketing companies, IT and pharma stocks would be in focus, Nevgi said, adding that invesment-wise the support to the markets “continue to come from domestic investors, given the selling by foreign investors”.
In the week gone by, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrip worth Rs 2,088.81 crore, while the domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 4,720.76 crore.
Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested equities worth Rs 4,528.63 crore, or $665.71 million, in the week ended on June 22.
In the coming week, Gaurav Jain, Director of Hem Securities, feels trading could be volatile as traders would roll over positions in the F&O segment from the near month June 2018 series to July 2018 series.
On a technical basis, the key Indian equity indices, Jasani said, are likely to witness “further upside” in the coming week once the immediate resistance level of 10,837 points on the Nifty50 is breached. Crucial supports to watch for resumption of weakness are at 10,710 points , he said.
In the week just ended, both the key Indian equity indices — S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 on the National Stock Exchange — rose for the fifth consecutive week, although with marginal gains. The indices ended higher on a weekly basis due to value buying, even as the trade was largely volatile and bearish.
The wider Nifty50 closed trade at 10,821.85 points — up 4.15 points or 0.04 per cent — from its previous close.
Similarly, the barometer 30-scrip Sensex rose by 67.46 points or 0.19 per cent to close at 35,689.60 points on a weekly basis.
(Rituraj Baruah can be contacted at rituraj.b@ians.in)
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rohit Vaid,
Mumbai : Monetary policy announcements by global central banks coupled with the upcoming release of major macro-economic data points on industrial production and inflation are expected to set the trend for the domestic equity indices.
According to market observers, other key factors such as rupee’s movements against the US dollar and fluctuations in crude oil prices as well as developments on monsoon’s progress will impact investors’ risk-taking appetite.
“Next week will have a flurry of economic data for India,” Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.
“A negative surprise in inflation data would reinforce the hawkish stance of RBI. A weaker external sector data would have an impact on INR, especially during a negative EM (emerging markets) sentiment. IIP (Index of Industrial Production) would be watched closely for an ongoing economic expansion.”
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI (Consumer Price Index) on June 12.
Subsequently, other major macro-economic data points such as WPI (Wholesale Price Index), Current Account Deficit and Balance of Trade figures will be released.
On the global front, monetary policy announcements by the US Federal Reserve, ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will form major themes for the upcoming week.
“The US Fed rate move and language will set the tone for sentiment in EM as well Indian markets. The key is whether the US Fed pays attention to the vulnerable EM situation,” Nevgi said.
Besides, the movement of Indian rupee against the US dollar and fluctuations in global crude oil prices will also set the course for the key indices.
On a weekly basis, the Indian rupee weakened by 45 paise to close at 67.51 against the US dollar from its previous close of 67.06 per greenback.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought scrips worth Rs 1,367.22 crore during the week ended June 8, 2018.
Figures from the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested equities worth Rs 3,757.94 crore, or $560.40 million, in the last week.
Additionally, technical charts show that the National Stock Exchange (NSE)’s Nifty50 remains in an intermediate uptrend.
“Technically, with Nifty recovering from the lows of 10,552 points, the intermediate trend remains up,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
“Further upsides are likely in the coming week once the immediate resistances of 10,814 points are taken out. Crucial supports to watch for any weakness are at 10,618 points.”
Last week, the key Indian equity indices — the S&P BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty50 — rose on the back of Reserve Bank of India’s “neutral” stance on a future rate hike trajectory, along with its reform measures for the realty, bond and banking sectors and value buying.
Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE rose by 216.41 points or 0.61 per cent to 35,443.67 points on a weekly basis.
Similarly, the wider Nifty50 of the NSE closed last week’s trade at 10,767.65 points — up 71.45 points or 0.67 per cent — from its previous close.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)
—IANS
