by admin | May 25, 2021 | Banking, Economy, Finance, Markets, News
By Rohit Vaid,
Mumbai : The Indian rupee’s movement against the US dollar and the upcoming macro-economic data points are expected to chart the course of key domestic equity indices during the coming week.
According to market observers, other factors such as the direction of foreign fund flows, derivatives expiry and the volatility in global crude oil prices will also impact investor sentiments.
“Crude oil prices, along with the rupee’s movement and the direction of foreign funds are likely to dictate market trends,” SMC Investments and Advisors’ Chairman and Managing Director D.K. Aggarwal told IANS.
“Investors will also remain cautious over the possibility of any rate hike by the US Fed, which can potentially drive away foreign funds from emerging markets such as India.”
Lately, a weakened Indian rupee has been a matter of concern for investors.
However, a reversal in the rupee’s trajectory was seen last week as it strengthened by 25 paise to close at 69.91 against the US dollar.
“The rupee is expected to be range-bound next week. In his speech at the Jackson Hole, US Fed Chairman has reiterated that the Fed will raise interest rates gradually,” said Rushabh Maru, Research Analyst with Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.
“Now the focus will shift to India’s GDP data, due to release next week. Expected range is estimated between 69.60 and 70.20.”
Besides, crucial data points on the country’s fiscal deficit, Index of Eight Core Industries and the Quarterly GDP growth rate will be keenly watched by the market participants.
Additionally, the direction of foreign fund flows will play a key role to determine market movement. Provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought scrips worth Rs 128.64 crore during the week ended August 24.
On technical-charts, any further upsides in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 are seen after the immediate resistance level of 11,621 points is crossed.
“Technically, with the Nifty surging to new highs, its intermediate trend remains up,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.
“The intermediate uptrend is likely to continue once the immediate resistance of 11,621 points is taken out. Crucial supports to watch for resumption of weakness is at 11,499 points.”
Last week, both the key Indian equity indices — S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 — rose for the fifth consecutive week and scaled new highs during the August 20-24 period despite global trade war tensions.
On August 23, both key indices touched their respective intra-day all-time high levels, before settling at their record closing levels.
Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) rose by 303.92 points or 0.80 per cent to close at 38,251.80 points on a weekly basis.
Similarly, the wider Nifty50 on the NSE made gains. On Friday, it ended at 11,557.10 points, higher by 86.35 points or 0.75 per cent from the previous week’s close.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in )
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rohit Vaid,
Mumbai : Fears over a rise in global protectionist measures, along with rupee movement and direction of foreign funds, are likely to chart the course of major domestic equity indices during the week starting on August 20.
“Global risk will drive the market sentiments next week. The news on US-China talks to resolve trade disputes later in the year will boost the sentiment,” Devendra Nevgi, Delta Global Partners Founder and Principal Partner, told IANS.
“The news emanating from Jackson Hole Symposium, where the US Fed Chairman is expected to comment on the policy rates, will be watched next week,” Nevgi added.
Consequently, investors will remain cautious over the possibility of any impending hike in the US interest rates which can potentially drive away Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from emerging markets such as India.
“Besides, rupee movement and crude oil price movements along with inflow and outflow by the foreign and domestic players will dictate the trend of the market going ahead,” SMC Investments & Advisors’ Chairman and Managing Director D.K. Aggarwal told IANS.
According to Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, the Indian rupee is expected to range from 69.50 to 70.50 against the US dollar in the coming week.
In recent days, geo-political tensions between the US and Turkey, wider trade deficit, along with outflow of foreign funds have pulled the Indian rupee to fresh record intra-day and closing lows.
On Thursday, the Indian rupee plunged to an intra-day level of 70.39-40 — its lowest-ever mark — against the greenback, prompting some automobile manufacturers and other import dependent sectors to raise prices.
It settled at a record closing low of 70.16 against the US dollar on Thursday.
Besides the rupee, foreign fund inflows into the country might get impacted due to “global risk aversion”.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrips worth Rs 2,028.47 crore during August 13-16.
“Emerging market sentiment remains negative which is reflected in the net selling by FPI, and the DII support is vital for the continued momentum in the markets,” Nevgi said.
On technical levels, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty50 remains in an uptrend.
“Technically, with the Nifty surging to new highs, its intermediate trend remains up,” Deepak Jasani, Head – Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told IANS.
“The intermediate uptrend is likely to continue once the immediate resistance of 11,495 points is taken out. Crucial supports to watch for resumption of weakness is at 11,340 points.”
Last week, both key Indian equity indices — S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 — rose on the back of easing inflation data along with broadly positive global cues.
However, a slump in the Indian rupee limited the gains on equity indices.
On a weekly basis, the S&P BSE Sensex closed at 37,947.88 points, higher 78.65 points or 0.21 per cent from its previous week’s close.
Similarly, the wider NSE Nifty50 made substantial gains. On Friday, it ended at a record closing high of 11,470.75 points, higher 41.25 points or 0.36 per cent from the previous week’s close.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Banking, Economy, Markets, News
By Rohit Vaid,
Mumbai : Key macro-economic inflation data points, combined with the last of first quarter earning results and the direction of foreign fund flows, are expected to drive the Indian equity indices next week.
Analysts opined that the movement of the Indian rupee against the US dollar as welll as global crude oil price volatility and high stock valuations will also affect investor sentiments.
“The domestic markets are likely to witness another eventful week, with more quarterly earnings, trends in global markets, investment by foreign and domestic investors,” SMC Investments & Advisors’ Chairman and Managing Director D.K. Aggarwal told IANS.
In terms of global cues, Delta Global Partners Founder and Principal Partner Devendra Nevgi told IANS: “The risk emanating from a potential Turkey-centred contagion spreading to EU banks will dominate the risk sentiment in the EMs (emerging markets) and Indian markets next week.”
“The USD is higher and the yields lower, indicating a risk-aversion scenario. The Indian rupee’s moves need to be closely watched, since it is already closer to an all-time low. The Turkish Lira’s steep fall and USD’s appreciation would negate the sentiment towards EM currencies in general, including the rupee.”
According to Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, the Indian rupee is expected to range from 68.70 to 69.30 against a US dollar in the coming week.
“We should be prepared for a devaluation. However, lower crude oil prices and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI ) invention in defending the Indian rupee against the USD will mitigate the magnitude of devaluation,” Banerjee told IANS.
On the currency front, the rupee closed at 68.83 on August 10, weakened by 22 paise from its previous week’s close of 68.61 per greenback.
Besides the rupee, foreign fund inflows into the country might get impacted due to “global risk aversion”.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought scrips worth Rs 992.18 crore in the last week.
Apart from foreign funds, macro-economic inflation data points such as the consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI) for July will set the tone for the key indices.
Company-wise, Abbott India, Cadila Healthcare, Godrej Industries, Greaves Cotton, Oil India, Tata Chemicals, Tata Steel, Allahabad Bank, GMR Infra, Grasim Industries and Sun Pharma are expected to announce their Q1 earning results next week.
On technical charts, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty50 remains in an uptrend as it has closed at new life highs.
“Technically, while the Nifty has corrected from life highs, the underlying trend of the Nifty remains up,” HDFC Securities’ Retail Research Head Deepak Jasani told IANS.
“The intermediate uptrend is likely to continue once the immediate resistance of 11,495 points is taken out. Crucial supports to watch for any further weakness is at 11,329 points.”
Last week, both the key Indian equity indices — S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex and the NSE Nifty 50 — rose on the back of healthy inflow of foreign funds, along with domestic political developments and positive global cues.
Additionally, prediction of healthy economic growth by IMF combined with better-than-expected quarterly results and low crude oil prices aided the two key indices in making substantial gains.
Consequently, the S&P BSE Sensex closed at 37,869.23 points, higher by 313.07 points or 0.82 per cent from its previous close.
The positive sentiment pushed the barometer index to a fresh intra-day record high of 38,076.23 points and a closing high of 38,024.37 points during the trade week ended August 10.
Similarly, the wider Nifty50 on the NSE made gains. It ended at 11,429.50 points, higher by 68.7 points or 0.58 per cent from its previous close.
The Nifty50 made a fresh intra-day record high of 11,495.20 points and closing high of 11,470.70 points.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rohit Vaid,
Mumbai : The upcoming monetary policy review coupled with the ongoing financial results season and key macro-economic data points will influence the trajectory of key equity indices in the week ahead, analysts opined.
According to market observers, direction of foreign fund flows, rupee’s movement against the US dollar as well as global crude oil prices will also affect investors sentiments.
“The next week is dominated by macro data and RBI monetary policy meeting,” Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.
“On the RBI policy, the markets are divided on policy rate hike in the next weeks meeting. The decision weightage given by MPC to core inflation is crucial and whether RBI changes its stance from neutral to hawkish. RBI is likely to be data dependent and cautious on hikes.”
Besides the monetary policy review slated for July 31-August 1, investors will look out for macro-economic data points such as the eight core industries’ (ECI) output and the country’s fiscal deficit numbers.
In addition, the PMI manufacturing and services’ figures, along with monthly automobile sales data will be released during the week.
Furthermore, companies like Axis Bank, HDFC, Idea Cellular, IndiGo, Piramal Enterprises, Tech Mahindra, EIH, Tata Motors, Vedanta, Reliance Infra, ONGC and SAIL are expected to announce their Q1 earning results next week.
“Going forward, besides the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement, the next batch of April to June 2018 quarterly earnings and developments in monsoon session of parliament will dictate trend on the bourses next week,” SMC Investments & Advisors Chairman and Managing Director D.K. Aggarwal told IANS.
On a weekly basis, the rupee strengthened by 19 paise to close at 68.66 from its previous week’s close of 68.85 per greenback.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought scrip worth Rs 2,539.58 crore during the previous week.
As per technical charts, the underlying trend for the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty remains bullish as it closed last week on a new record high.
“It could now face resistance at 11,410 points-level, while downside support is at 11,071-points-mark,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities.
Last week, the S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 closed at their respective high levels on the back of healthy quarterly earnings and GST rate cuts on over 50 consumer items.
Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensex of the BSE closed at 37,336.85 points — up 840.48 points or 2.30 per cent from the previous close.
Similarly, the wider Nifty50 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) settled at 11,278.35 points, higher by 268.15 points or 2.44 per cent — from its previous week’s close.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in )
—IANS
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Economy, Markets, News
By Rituraj Baruah,
Mumbai : After largely bearish trade in the week-ended Friday, the key Indian equity indices would be driven by corporate earnings, futures and options (F&O) expiry and the rupee movement in the week ahead, analysts said.
The proceedings of the ongoing monsoon session of parliament are also likely to impact the market.
Further, analysts feel the result of Friday’s no-confidence motion in Parliament, which the government comfortably won, is likely to support investor sentiments in the week ahead.
“Earnings season will pick up pace in the coming week, where the expectations are high. Any revival in earnings growth will provide the scope for re-rating in valuation,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
According to Delta Global Partners’ Principal Partner, Devendra Nevgi, the markets would look forward to earnings releases, particularly of HDFC Bank, ITC, Bharti Airtel and Dr Reddy’s Lab.
“The outcome of the no-confidence motion against the ruling government would bring some relief to the market,” Nevgi said.
Gaurav Jain, Director of Hem Securities, was of the opinion that developments in the monsoon session of Parliament and expiry of July F&O contracts, would dictate trend s on the bourses next week.
“Ahead of the F&O expiry in the coming week, traders will square off their positions as this would be the first F&O expiry which will be settled in physical delivery for some bluechip stocks,” Jain added.
Further, the movement of the Indian rupee is critical.
On Friday, the rupee hit an all-time low of 69.12 against the greenback but eventually recovered and closed at 68.85, strengthening by three paise from its previous week’s close of 68.88 per greenback.
On Thursday, the rupee had also touched a fresh closing low of 69.05 per dollar.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrips worth Rs 1,209.41 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth Rs 1,300.06 crore in the week gone by.
Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested Rs 888.70 crore, or $129.80 million from the equities segment on stock exchanges during the week ended on July 20.
In the week ended Friday, the key indices declined marginally due to rise in inflation rate, weakening rupee and the no-confidence motion in Parliament.
Index-wise, on a weekly basis the benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange’s (BSE) Sensex closed at 36,496.37 points — down 45.26 points or 0.12 per cent from the previous close. Significantly, on Wednesday, the Sensex hit a fresh record high of 36,747.87 points, but could not hold on to the gains.
The wider Nifty50 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) settled at 11,010.20 points, down just 8.7 points or 0.08 per cent — from its previous week’s close.
In the week ahead, the Nifty50 is likely to witness further upsides once the immediate resistance of 11,078 points is taken out, said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, adding that the crucial support levels would be at 10,925 points.
(Rituraj Baruah can be contacted at rituraj.b@ians.in)
—IANS
