by admin | May 25, 2021 | Opinions
Frank F. Islam
In spite of Joe Biden’s win over Donald Trump for the presidency, much of the media coverage after the November 3 elections related to the future of the Democratic Party.
That discussion was precipitated by the Democrats’ loss of 13 seats in the House in 2020. By contrast, the Democrats gained 41 House seats in the midterm elections of 2018.
The events of January 6 and the subsequent turmoil focused public attention on the future of the Republican Party, rather than that of the Democratic Party. The future of the Democratic Party still remains in question, however.
In large part, this is due to the fact that the Democratic Party — as it has almost always been — is a big tent party. Democrats today cover the spectrum both demographically and ideologically. As Thomas R. Edsall points out in his New York Times column:
But it’s important to remember that conflicts are inherent in a party that seeks to represent constituencies running the gamut from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 14th district in New York (50 percent Hispanic, 22 percent non-Hispanic white, 18 percent Asian, 8 percent Black) to 7th generation Utahan Ben McAdams 4th District in Utah (74 percent white, 1 percent Black, 3 percent Asian, 17 percent Hispanic).
After the congressional losses in 2020, those conflicts led to finger-pointing and blame-placing. Some moderate to conservative Democratic congresspeople cited the riots associated with Black Lives protests and calls to “defund the police’ as primary reasons for the losses. While some in the progressive camp attributed them to poor campaigns and a failure of Democratic leadership to help organize and do grassroots work in those districts.
The differences of opinion continued as President-elect Biden made his cabinet selections. Progressives lobbied for more left-leaning and diverse nominees while moderates and conservatives urged for more centrists. Those differences continued as President Biden saw his COVID-19 rescue plan pass both the House and the Senate with the progressives disappointed that the $15 an hour minimum wage did not stay in the Senate version of the bill. Nonetheless, on March 10 the House Democrats came together and approved the Senate version of the nearly $1.9 stimulus package and it is now law.
Disagreements and disorganization are nothing new to the Democratic Party. Indeed, if one looks back in time, it is easy to see that nationally the Party has always had some difficulty in getting its act together and the required voters in the right places behind it.
As evidence of these deficiencies, consider the following:
- Would Bill Clinton have been elected president if there had not been a third-party candidate named H. Ross Perot siphoning off a slew of votes in critical states that most likely would have gone to his Republican opponent?
- Vice President Al Gore’s loss in 2000 to George W. Bush, in what should have been a run-away given the high job approval ratings for Bill Clinton’s second term in office.
- John Kerry’s loss in 2004 to incumbent George W. Bush whose approval ratings were declining substantially in 2003 and 2004
- Hillary Clinton’s stunning loss in 2016 to Donald Trump, surrendering the traditional blue states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- In 2020, would any of the candidates in the historically large field for the Democratic nomination for president other than Joe Biden have been able to defeat Donald Trump?
Barack Obama was not victimized by the inability of the Democratic Party to put together winning campaigns that address the complex nature of the American electorate and our convoluted electoral college presidential selection process. Obama did this by creating his own organization to parallel that of the Democratic Party, and employing it successfully to emerge victorious in 2008 and 2012.
The past is not prologue. But it does cast a shadow that could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if the right lesson is not learned. The lesson in this instance, as demonstrated by the wins of Obama and Biden, is that the big tent needs to embrace Democrats from every corner and open its flaps to independents and cross-over Republican voters as well.
E.J. Dionne emphasized the pivotal importance of this approach in his Washington Post piece, observing:
The 2020 election perfectly captured the distinction between Democratic diversity and Republican homogeneity. Biden’s coalition was a little bit of everybody — self-described liberals (they constituted 42 percent of his voters), moderates (48 percent), and conservatives (10 percent), according to the network exit poll conducted by Edison Research. In other words, contrary to Trump’s claim that Biden is a tool for raging leftists, a majority of his electorate was non-liberal.
It appears that some in the Democratic Party are not in a learning mode currently. Progressives — especially the democratic socialists — are pushing the party and its policies to be reshaped in their image and likeness. What would that mean for the future of the big tent going forward?
It means that the tent would not be that big or welcoming. That might not matter as much in terms of winning presidential elections, but only because the Republican Party has shifted to the extreme right to become the Party of Trump (POT). This past election attests that the POT has little to no appeal for moderate Republicans or truly independent voters. As we noted in our previous blog in this series, “In spite of its footprint across the country, unless things change substantially, the POT is now and is destined to be a state, regional and local player as opposed to winner in national elections.”
The polar opposite would be true for the Democratic Party if it shifted to the extreme left or became the Democratic Socialist Party (DSP). The DSP might win the presidency but would have a much more difficult time in winning Senate and House races. The results of this could be a Democratic President confronted by Republican-controlled House and Senate.
The best path forward for the Democratic Party is to stay the course in terms of diversity and a broad base, and to improve the operational and grassroots capacity to win U.S. Senate and House races. The best examples of how to accomplish this come from the Democratic pick-up of House seats in the 2018 mid-terms and Stacy Abrams’ and her counterparts’ work in Georgia that resulted in Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock being elected to the U.S. Senate.
The Democratic winners in the swing districts in 2018 benefited from a sutge of anti-Trump voters and a very low Republican turnout. They also ran on platforms tailored to reflect the local priorities of their district, and not allegiance to a consuming ideology.
William A. Galston of the Brookings Institution notes that in 2020, for some reason, “…more Democrats than Republicans who voted in the presidential contest failed to vote for their party’s candidate, reducing their chances of prevailing in close races.” Democrats are at a structural disadvantage in House races due to gerrymandered districts and need to have candidates and organizing approaches that maximize their turnout to overcome this.
Stacy Abrams and a network of local organizers in Georgia, including groups such as the Asian American Advocacy Fund, Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials, and Georgia Standup, set the gold standard for grassroots organizing. They mobilized voters of color and the disenfranchised, uniting them with white voters to enable Ossoff and Warnock to prevail in the Senate run-off races and Joe Biden to win the presidential race by 12,000 votes. The stage was set for these accomplishments through a decade-long process of planning and coalition-building.
The Georgia coalition is a model for what some presume will be the mode for the big tent of the Democratic Party for years to come: a multiracial, multi-ethnic group of upper- and middle-class white voters joining with middle- and working class Black, Latino, and Asian voters.
Michael Powell, in his New York Times feature article, explains why achieving this united bloc template will be much easier said than done. Powell highlights that in the 2020 elections “..slices of ethnic and racial constituencies peeled off and cut against Democratic expectations.” He quotes Professor Omar Wasow of Princeton University, who explains, “We should not think of demography as destiny…These groups are far more heterogenous than a monolith, and campaigns often end up building their own idiosyncratic coalition.”
Therein lies a message that the Democratic Party must hear to guarantee the future for their big tent on an across the board basis. That message was first communicated by Tip O’Neill, Democratic Speaker of the House from Massachusetts. O’Neill said “All politics is local.” That locality is not only the place from which voters come, but also the space between their ears where they make the decision on whom to support and why.
Given that, the formula for success in the future should be a process that is bottom up, top down, and managed in the middle. That formula will vary from place to place and space to space. By recognizing this, and keeping the flaps open, the Democrats big tent will get bigger and make things better for the vast majority of Americans, regardless of party affiliation.
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Opinions
By Haider Abbas
The entire world is gripped with the possibility of a coming war, and the theatre which was assumed to be India-China , is now suddenly getting shifted to the much awaited Iran and Middle-East, which very arguably, has all the potential to turn into a third world-war, as the on-going duel between US president Donald Trump and incumbent president Joseph Biden, may fast turn out to be ‘out-of-hand’ . Trump supporters have started to march to Washington to protest the allegations of ‘fraud-in-elections’ by Trump and Biden has expressed his grave concerns, for the first time, that ‘more people may die’. If Trump refuses to cooperate on transition’ of power, informed The Guardian on November 17, 2020 1, but amid all the spree, it has come to light that Trump is mulling an attack on Iran, cited BBC on November 17, 2020 2 and has called all his advisors to assuage the options of a strike on nuclear sites of Iran, towards which Iran has vowed a ‘crushing’ response, tells Al Jazeera on November 17, 2020 3.
Trump who is credited not to have started any fresh war, in contrast to a war-mongering image of Biden, in fact had long been pressurised by the Jewish state of Israel to start a war on Iran, in apprehension to the Iranian nuclear programme, in all these last four-years, and now Trump in desperation to please the Israel state, is standing on a very critical moment as a war at this juncture has every possibility to engulf the whole world. Iran has to be decimated on the charges of its nuclear enrichment programme, as after all in the wake of the hoax of weapons of mass destruction claim, Iraq too had to be reduced to ashes, once by George W Bush and the world just saw to be a witness to millions of deaths in Iraq, followed by Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen etc!
It is worth to recall that Trump in May 2018 had scrapped the US-Iran nuclear deal, which Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu boasts to have got it done himself, reveals TimesofIsrael on July 17, 2018 4 might not have succumbed to Israel, but in his desperation right now, might out-trigger a war with Iran, in his next 65 days i.e. until he remains confirmed with the same powers, or else it is also an understandable reality that soon Biden would pick from where Trump would leave. Thus, a war on Iran, to the tunes of Israel, whether be it from Trump or Biden, is therefore likely to come. As Biden had always been a self-professed Zionist, disclosed Scoop.Co.NZ on March 17, 2020 5.
Trump has been overtly pro-Israel as he played an instrumental role into getting UAE, Bahrain, Sudan formalise their ‘relations’ with Israel apart from giving status to ‘Jerusalem’ to be the capital of Israel. He complied with the annexation-plan of West Bank by Israel, and it was also quite conclusive that Trump, if re-elected, will supervise it to happen. But, Trump to the liking of Israel fell dramatically short of a war! Trump is therefore now searching for moves to placate Israel and has already deployed his US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, who recently declared that a second-term of Trump is coming, his highest ranking official to visit the ‘Israeli illegal settlements’ in West Bank , which is to provide a legitimate-cover and also to take one more step forward towards the ‘annexation-plan’ of Israel, although US state department has not confirmed Pompeo itinerary as yet, notified Al Jazeera on November 13, 2020 6 .
Iran as its part of defense mechanism, is also moving to safeguard its boundaries, and therefore, its foreign minister Javed Zarif made a visit to Pakistan on November 10, 2020 to coordinate a response from Pakistan, for US would surely try to seek to use Pakistan Shamsi airbase to bombard Iran, or obviously from its biggest military base in Al Udeid in Qatar. And, no wonder the chief of Qatar air force, therefore, made a visit to Pakistan on November 17, 2020, to help clear the air that Qatar too would not oblige US in its attack on Iran, as then Iran would also target US base in Qatar, and moreover, Qatar is now firmly with Turkey which is now in a new bloc with Iran, Pakistan, Malaysia-supported by Russia and China. Plus, in one of the biggest deals in history China and Iran have entered into a 25 years 400 billion USD ‘military and trade’ agreement which has sent everything spinning in Middle-East as well as in Israel, US and India. India, ironically, has been made to move out from Iran Chabahar project which even the visits of defense minister Rajnath Singh (September 5, 2020) and external affairs minister S Jaishaker (September 9, 2020) , could not re-stitch again.
If Trump is to give a go-ahead against Iran, it will most certainly have a fallout on Pakistan and China, who are at daggers-drawn with India over India’s PM Narendra Modi annulment of Article 370, on August 5, 2019, which gave special status JK&L, and it hadn’t been that long enough when Pakistan distanced itself from Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, one year later, after allegations that KSA did not stand with Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir, and therefore, KSA King Salman, response after the visit of Javed Zarif, at the behest of US, was quite predictive as he sought for a ‘decisive-stance’ against Iran, corroborated Al Jazeera on November 12, 2020 7 .
There might be a stealth-fighter attack, or a missile attack from Iraq or even a cyber-attack, as Iran had experienced mystery-fires in July last , when seven of its ships had caught fire , but whatever is to happen is to make it to the advantage of Israel, and India is very firmly with Israel, which ironically has been accorded as a ‘black-sheep’ by Russian president Vladimir Putin in ‘BRICS family’ on November 17, 2020, according to HindustanTimes 8 , as India has bid adieu to Russia by signing BECA with US, despite when around 70 percent of India’s military wherewithal has a stamp of Russia.
But, despite all if US goes on to attack Iran, China alongside Pakistan, due to CPEC, would also be there to the defense of Iran. Perhaps, if all this happens, then surely it would be advantage India. Even if, when Biden takes over on January 21, 2021.
The writer is a former State Information Commissioner, India. He is a media analyst and writes of international politics.
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Opinions
Frank F. Islam
By Frank F Islam
2020 was a long and contentious year politically which ended with a win for Biden, America, and India. That is good news. The better news is that the best is yet to come.
Nearly three weeks after the historic presidential election, United States (US) President Donald Trump is yet to concede, clinging on to hope that he can somehow miraculously hold on to power despite losing by a huge margin. However, with even his Republican allies at state and local levels refusing to help him, there is no chance that Trump will succeed in his attempt to overturn the will of the people.
But, unfortunately, Trump’s unfounded accusations of election fraud and his refusal to concede have no doubt sullied the spirit of the American democracy, which has always prided itself on smooth and orderly transition of power. The outgoing president is also dragging down the Republican Party, whose leaders largely have stood by him.
The president has suffered defeats in a string of court cases — many of which were absurd and farcical — and even many GOP election officials in states and at local jurisdictions have refused angry demands via Twitter to nullify the election results. What these legal and political defeats prove is that the world’s oldest democracy is going to pass the most intense stress test it was subjected to thus far with flying colours.
A big example is that, despite the incumbent’s stonewalling, President-elect Joe Biden is at work, putting together teams and personnel that will form the core of his administration and crafting policies to tackle Covid-19 and revive the economy, two of his biggest election promises. The US business community and a number of world leaders have recognised Biden as the rightful winner. Among the global leaders who congratulated the president-elect was Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The presidential election has implications for India, due to its status as the world’s largest democracy, strategic imperatives and the special involvement of the Indian-American community electorally in the US this time around.
New Delhi was anxious about the election, especially after it provided platforms for Trump to deliver campaign speeches on two occasions in the past 15 months. Despite the presence of Kamala Harris, who is of Indian and African-American origin, on the Biden ticket, some in India were rooting for the president’s re-election because he did not oppose the government’s actions in Kashmir and the enactment of the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
There is no question that human rights would go back to being one of the centerpieces of the US foreign policy under the Biden administration. For this reason, some in in India are apprehensive about a Biden White House “meddling” in India’s “internal affairs.”
There is a consensus among objective observers in Washington, however, that no single issue will derail the bilateral ties between India and the US. In fact, ties will only strengthen. And this is because, under the Trump administration, India-US relations had become primarily transactional. While defence ties between the two countries continued on the trajectory of the Bush and Obama administrations, commercial ties took a step backward. Trump quarrelled with India publicly on a number of small trade issues that could have been better addressed privately through constructive negotiations among foreign policy experts. His foreign policy was largely been based on his whims and fancies. He routinely ignored the Department of State. Under the Biden administration, bilateral relations with India will go back to being institutionally-centered and subject-matter expert-driven.
Under the Biden presidency, the US will rejoin the Paris Agreement — which took effect on November 4, the day after the elections — and a series of other international accords and treaties, and rebuild the bridge with its North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners. India will benefit from the US once again taking an active role internationally.
Another aspect of this presidential elections that triggered a lot of interest in India was the significance and involvement of the Indian-American community. As has been widely reported, the community was openly courted by both parties. In terms of mobilisation and campaign donations, and now with Kamala Harris set to be sworn in as the first woman, African-American and Indian-American vice-president of the US on January 20, this election has been unprecedented in more ways than one.
Judging by the number of Indian-Americans Biden has included in various cabinet transition committees, one can expect a significant Indian-American presence in the administration. There are close to two-dozen Indian-Americans in the 500-member transition agency review teams. Three teams are led by Indian-Americans. Biden’s Covid-19 task force includes three Indian-Americans, including Vivek Murthy, who is a co-chair. Murthy, a former surgeon general of the US, is reportedly a candidate for the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Service. Other Indian-American names touted for top jobs include Stanford professor Arun Majumdar for the secretary of energy and former PepsiCo chief Indra Nooyi for the secretary of commerce.
2020 was a long and contentious year politically which ended with a win for Biden, the US, and India. That is good news. The better news is that the best is yet to come.
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Opinions
Frank F. Islam
By Frank F Islam
Under Joe Biden, US-India relations in areas like trade and commerce, as well as defence and strategic ties, are likely to be strengthened. New Delhi will be a large part of the Biden administration’s Asia Pacific strategy.
Now that the all-consuming debate on who will be better for New Delhi — Donald Trump or Joe Biden — is settled, India-watchers here have moved on to the next set of questions.
They are: what will the Biden White House look like? Who will lead the two key departments, state and defence, which matter the most to India? And, how many Indian-Americans will be in the next administration?
To those who are not familiar with the nitty-gritty of Washington, when an administration changes, the churn rate in personnel is quite high. As many as 4,000 vacancies arise whenever a new president is sworn in, with the White House complex alone accounting for 10 percent of those jobs. Key positions to be filled in include cabinet secretaries, assistant secretaries, dozens of ambassadorships, and district attorneys.
DIVERSE CABINET
To answer the above questions one by one, it is safe to assume at the outset that the new administration will look like the America of today, diverse and representative of the larger Democratic umbrella coalition.
That coalition, which propelled Joe Biden to the presidency, includes a number of ethnic and ideological groups, such as African-Americans, Hispanics, Asian and Indian Americans, labour union members, working-class people, progressives, and moderates. Women voters played a significant role in Biden’s victory — 57 percent of women voted for him, compared to 42 percent for Trump.
Each of the above-mentioned groups is certain to find representation in the administration. As a matter of fact, Kamala Harris ticks off at least three out of four of these boxes: woman, African-American, and Indian-American.
Two names that are speculated about for the state and defence secretaries’ position are women. Former US Ambassador to the UN and National Security Advisor, Susan Rice, is reportedly among the frontrunners for secretary of state, while former Clinton and Obama official Michele Flournoy is said to be considered for secretary of defence.
Whoever is picked for these positions, India will be a big part of the next administration’s foreign policy. That will not be because of the cabinet secretaries, but because of their boss, president-elect Joe Biden.
When Biden is sworn in as president on January 20, 2021, he will enter the Oval Office with one unique distinction: He will have more India expertise than any of his 45 predecessors had at the beginning of their White House tenure. The president-elect has engaged with India for decades, first as the chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee and then as vice president.
During his nearly half a century of public life, Biden has seen the highs and lows of India-US relations through his own eyes. When he first ran for the Senate in 1972, the bilateral ties were at their nadir, with President Richard Nixon siding with Pakistan in the Indo-Pak war the previous year.
As the relations began improving and reaching new heights over the past quarter-century, Biden had a seat at the high table, as an active participant, in many of the seminal moments. So, more than anyone else, the President himself will be invested in America’s relations with India.
Therefore, irrespective of whoever is in charge at Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon, the bilateral ties, in all areas, trade and commerce, as well as defence and strategic relations, will be strengthened. New Delhi will be a large part of the next administration’s Asia Pacific strategy.
Where India will gain the most will be on the trade and commerce front, where the Trump administration took a number of steps backward with its protectionist trade policies.
Will there be any disagreements between the United States and India on areas such as human rights? Absolutely. But, unlike the interactions on differences of opinion with the Trump administration, I am confident that the two sides will handle all disagreements in a mature, professional, and diplomatic manner.
INDIAN-AMERICAN REPRESENTATION
Based upon the track record of previous Democratic administrations, one can expect a significant presence of Indian-Americans in the Biden White House. Obama currently holds the record for nominating and appointing the largest number of Indian-Americans. Now, judging by their presence in various transition committees, it appears that an even larger group of Indian Americans will be working in the executive branch after January 20.
The president-elect has tapped nearly two-dozen Indian Americans to serve on his 500-member transition agency review teams. Three of the teams are led by Indian Americans. Stanford professor Arun Majumdar leads the Department of Energy review team; March of Dimes Chief Medical and Health Officer Rahul Gupta heads the Office of National Drug Policy team; the Office of Personnel Management team is led by Philanthropy Northwest CEO Kiran Ahuja.
Similarly, the president-elect’s 13-member Covid-19 task force has three Indian Americans. Its co-chair Vivek Murthy, a former surgeon general, is touted as a potential candidate for the top Health and Human Service job. In the new administration, no cabinet member will have a more important role than the HHS secretary, who will be in charge of fighting Covid-19, which was described by Biden as his Number One priority.
What the presence of a record number of Indian Americans on various transition teams and the Covid-19 task force indicates is the incredible expertise and deep pools of talent within the community in a number of fields, such as healthcare, technology, law, economics and finance. Given this, there is no doubt that Indian Americans will be well represented in the Biden administration.
The community, like most minority groups, has been reliably Democratic for decades. A number of Indian Americans worked hard for the victory of the Biden-Harris ticket. Their representation will be a just reward for the community for its loyalty and hard work. More importantly because of their competence and commitment to the country, beneficial to the entire United States as well.
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Opinions, World
The elected 46th US President Joe Biden.
Joe Biden’s win will have a definite impact on America’s relationship with other countries across the globe.
Asad Mirza
Asad Mirza
Twenty years after the nail biting Bush-Al Gore electoral fight in 2000, the recent Trump-Biden presidential contest was perhaps the most watched and nerves wracking electoral fight till the victor was declared.
It was not only the Americans who had a lot at stake in this year’s presidential election. During the last four years many American values were eroded or were given a completely new shape, with lies and subterfuge taking the centre stage. Countries around the world were keenly watching the race and trying to determine what the outcome may mean for them.
For some, Trump ushered in a new type of politics, which they fully supported, including many in India, besides a large number of Indian-origin voters back in the US. For others, a Joe Biden victory would be warmly welcomed.Let’s have a quick look at what the Biden victory may mean for different countries across the globe
India
Apart from the personal Trump-Modi equation, realistically the U.S.-India relationship is centred around trade and defence. For its part, India is concerned with the U.S. stance toward Pakistan and China, with whom it has border disputes. In recent skirmishes on the India-China border, both the White House and Joe Biden’s campaign indicated support for India. For many Indians, Biden may be more popular because of his promises to allow more work visas, compared to Trump who has taken a harder line on non-Americans working in the U.S.
Pakistan
During Trump’s four-year tenure, relations between the US and Pakistan were greatly affected, Trump repeatedly lambasted Pakistan through public forums. After Biden’s victory, relations with USA’s closest ally in Asia are expected to improve. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan in his congratulatory message expressed hope to work with the United States on a range of issues, including illegal tax evasion. In his tweet, Imran said that we would continue to work with the United States for peace in other regions, especially in Afghanistan.
China
While China-U.S. relations hit a low under President Donald Trump, it is not certain that Beijing would automatically support his Democratic rival, Joe Biden. Under Trump, the world’s two largest economies have plunged into a costly trade war. The U.S. condemned Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and criticised the treatment of minority Uyghurs and Hong Kong demonstrators.
Biden, meanwhile, has vowed to stand up to Beijing, called President Xi Jinping a “thug” and has also criticised the country’s treatment of the Uyghurs. Chinese political commentatorshowever describe Trump’s disruptive style as a golden opportunity for China’s rise and thus it may welcome four more years of Trump.
Russia
Even though President Donald Trump’s policies have not always aligned with Moscow’s interests, most Russians see him as friendly to Russia. In August, Trump told aides he’d like to hold an in-person meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin before the election.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, is viewed as having more hawkish attitudes toward Moscow. With Biden, there is concern he would take a greater interest in Russia’s activities on the international stage. He is known as being sympathetic to Ukraine, and Putin himself most likely isn’t a fan, some experts say.
United Kingdom
For the British government, the U.S. presidential election presents a dilemma.
Unlike European leaders who have lambasted Trump, the U.K.’s leaders have been keen to please him. Desperate to strike a post-Brexit U.S. trade deal, they have in Trump a Brexit supporter who calls Prime Minister Boris Johnson “Britain’s Trump.”
However, Biden may present other challenges. He’s pro-EU, anti-Brexit and once called Boris Johnson, a Trump’s “physical and emotional clone.” Biden has vowed to back his Irish ancestral homeland if Brexit threatens its peace and economy. Some fear a Europe-allied, China-focused Biden might see Britain’s “special relationship” with the United States — honed through decades of war, diplomacy and intelligence sharing — as increasingly irrelevant.The British public was more decisive, with 81 percent of those polled by Pew in September saying that they have no confidence in Trump.
Iran
There cannot be many countries watching the election more closely than Iran.
In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that eased sanctions on the country in return for limits on its nuclear program. Trump then imposed a wave of crippling economic sanctions on the country of 83 million. In contrast, if challenger Joe Biden is elected, “he would seek to build on the nuclear deal to make it longer and stronger if Iran returns to strict compliance,” according to Antony Blinken, a Biden foreign policy adviser. This could also mean the removal of U.S. sanctions and an end to Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
Israel
If the U.S. election were held in Israel, President Donald Trump would most likely win in a landslide. In Israel, Trump will be remembered as the U.S. president who recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, breaking with decades of American precedent. His administration will also be remembered for pulling out of a nuclear deal with Israel’s arch enemy, Iran; recognising Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights; brokering agreements to normalise ties with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and presenting a plan to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Biden has said his commitment to Israel is “unshakable.” However, some are concerned about the pressure he may come under from members of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, some of whom are outspoken critics of Israel and its treatment of Palestinians. Israelis also believe that Biden, if elected, would revive the nuclear deal with Tehran.
Saudi Arabia
Few countries have more at stake in November’s election than Saudi Arabia, the U.S.’s closest Arab ally, a major customer of American weapons and a bulwark against Iranian ambitions in the Middle East. Since his tour of Saudi Arabia in 2017 on the first foreign trip of his presidency, Trump has proven to be a boon for Riyadh: He ditched a nuclear deal with the kingdom’s main rival, Iran; sent troops to the country after accusing Iran of attacking its oil facilities; and dismissed U.S. intelligence accusing Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler Prince Mohammed bin Salman of ordering the killing of a prominent critic, journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Trump’s White House has also helped the oil-rich nation proceed with a disastrous war in Yemen, one of the world’s poorest countries where millions of children face hunger and malnutrition.
In contrast, Joe Biden has said he will take a different approach.A top campaign adviser has also said that, as president, Biden would likely revive a deal with Iran to curb its nuclear development. However, Salman al-Ansari of the Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee opines that Saudi leadership is also practical, realistic and ready to adjust to any global changes, including America’s political landscape, and thus may changes its stand with the new president.
Turkey
Trump and the Turkish President RecepTayyipErdoganhave enjoyed a warm personal relationship since they met first at the White House in November 2019. On the other hand Joe Biden views Ankara with suspicion. Earlier this year in an interview with The New York TimesBiden had said he was “very concerned” about Erdogan’s approach to the Kurds in Turkey, military cooperation with Russia, and access to US airfields in the country, as a NATO ally.Despite Trump’s warmer personal relationship with Erdogan, diplomatic relations have been strained over Turkey’s purchase of Russian missile defence systems and policy in the Syrian civil war, and they may not change with the new president.
Germany
President Donald Trump is more unpopular in Germany than almost anywhere else, so it’s no surprise that many Germans would prefer Joe Biden to win in November. Trump has repeatedly insulted Chancellor Angela Merkel. So a Biden win would most likely be an improvement in US-Germany ties. That’s not to say Biden would provide an instant elixir for the Germans.
Afghanistan
When it comes to the U.S. election, the only winner most Afghans care about is whoever can bring peace to the country nearly 20 years after the U.S. invasion. On paper it may appear as if President Donald Trump has accomplished more in this regard than his predecessors. In February, his administration signed a landmark deal with the Taliban, which calls for peace talks between the militants and an Afghan delegation that includes Kabul government officials. And in September, both sides agreed to come to the table in a diplomatic breakthrough that raised the prospects for peace. Still, most Afghans see Democrat Joe Biden as a safer choice.
Asad Mirza is a political commentator based in New Delhi. He was also associated with BBC Urdu Service and Khaleej Times of Dubai. He writes on Muslims, educational, international affairs, interfaith and current affairs. Email: asad.mirza.nd@gmail.com
