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Can the PTI initiate an Indo-Pak peace process?

Can the PTI initiate an Indo-Pak peace process?

Indo-Pak, India-Pakistan, flagBy Frank F Islam,

Will cricket legend Imran Khan’s ascension to power in Pakistan ease tensions between his homeland and India? Mr Khan, who took the oath to become Pakistan’s 22nd Prime Minister (PM) last week is immensely popular in cricket-crazy India. The rivalry between Pakistan and India is so strong, however, that even he may find it hard to repair the broken ties between the two nations, which have fought three wars over the past 70 years.

Fortunately, at this early point in time, the initial indications from both sides have been positive. Khan expressed a desire for better relations with India in his victory speech. After taking the oath of office, he used Twitter to call for a dialogue with India to resolve conflicts, including Kashmir. He stated “Best way to alleviate poverty and uplift the people of the Subcontinent is to resolve our differences through dialogue and start trading”. Indian PM Narendra Modi expressed similar feelings in congratulating Mr Khan on his new position, calling for “meaningful and constructive engagement” with Pakistan.

Because of this temporary détente, Imran has the opportunity to take the lead in resetting Pakistan’s relations with India. There are two factors that he can exploit in this regard. First, Imran enjoys substantial goodwill among Indian opinion makers owing to his long and distinctive association with the game of cricket. The former leader of the Indian Opposition Congress party, Sonia Gandhi has called him “a brother”. Former Indian cricketer and current politician Navjot Singh Sidhu travelled from India to attend Khan’s inauguration as PM.

Second, it is widely believed that Imran Khan has the backing of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment, which is a key stakeholder when it comes to improving India-Pakistan ties. His predecessor, Nawaz Sharif did not have the support of the military. There was a trust deficit and as a result there was no major initiative toward India. In contrast, with the confidence and support of the military, Mr Khan has the potential to launch asuccessful peace initiative with India.

PM Modi must be PM Khan’s partner if such an initiative is to come to fruition. Because of his recent statements and past actions, it appears that Modi is sincerely interested in improving the relationship between India and Pakistan.

There are two fundamental issues that have been at the centre of the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India. These are Kashmir and terrorism

Consider that Modi invited his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif to attend his swearing in ceremony as PM and made a surprise trip to Lahore to attend the wedding of MrSharif’s granddaughter. Given Mr Sharif’s problematic relationship with the Pakistan military, these interactions never lead to serious discussions. Now, with Mr Khan at the helm in Islamabad, the equation has changed and the prospects for a successful dialogue have improved considerably.

In spite of this, defining and building a path to peace will not be easy for the two PMs. There are two fundamental issues that have been at the centre of the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India. These are Kashmir and terrorism. While Pakistan consistently calls for the resolution of the Kashmir issue, India urges Pakistan to do more on curbing “cross-border terrorism”. Resolution of these issues will require substantial public support and the endorsement of the security establishments on both sides of the border. While this may be difficult to achieve, it is not impossible.

In the past, the two countries have come close to resolving the issues dividing them. In early 2007, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf and Indian PM Manmohan Singh were close to a negotiated peace deal. That deal brokered through back channel diplomacy did not see the light of day, however, as Musharraf got embroiled in domestic political disputes that eventually resulted in his ouster. According to a leaked US embassy cable dated April 21, 2009, PM Singh told a visiting US delegation that India and Pakistan had agreed to a non-territorial solution to Kashmir which involved free trade and movement across the Line of Control.

Similarly, efforts were made in the past to address Indian concerns on cross border infiltrations through a composite dialogue between the two countries. The dialogue resulted in several confidence building measures between the two countries including a ceasefire on the Kashmir border and the start of bus service between Sri Nagar and Muzaffarabad. Unfortunately, this peace process came to a screeching halt due to the Samjhota Express Bombings of 2007 and the Mumbai attacks of 2008.

That was then, and this is now. With Imran Khan and Narenda Modi leading Pakistan and India, there is hope for the restoration of a formal peace process. The desire for peace appears mutual. None the less, the negotiations leading to a comprehensive settlement will no doubt be difficult, complex and time-consuming.

Given this, it would be well to remember the adage, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Heeding this advice, it might make sense to begin rebuilding the relationship between Pakistan and India with small steps that could help set the stage for a full-fledged peace agreement.

Some small steps that could be taken in the near term to strengthen the bonds and build a cooperative and collaborative framework between Pakistan and India include improving people to people contact through a cultural exchange. Restoration of bilateral sports events — especially cricket series — could a go a long way in improving relations. The two countries could strengthen the regional body named South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). This forum has the potential to not only bring Pakistan and India closer together but alsoto address the Afghanistan conundrum. Easing visa regimes to encourage cross border travel and social interaction will also help. Currently it is almost impossible for ordinary citizens of one country to get visas to visit the other. Producing Indian Bollywood movies which have a great following in Pakistan with joint Pakistani-Indian staffing and casting will also help. Starting bilateral trade between the two countries on a limited scope basis focusing on items and areas that are important to the working class in both countries will also bring the two neighbours closer.

Evolving a counter-terrorism mechanism to protect the more than 1.5 billion citizens of this region from becoming victims of terrorists is also very important. Encouraging religious tourism so that Muslims can travel to their sacred places in India and the Sikh community can travel to their sacred places in Pakistan is also necessary.

These small steps and others could start the development of a new relationship between Pakistan and India.   They will give peace a chance.  They will provide Khan, Modi and their representatives the time and space they needto do the work required to build the enduring partnership that is essential for the future of this region.

Muslim countries failed to tackle blasphemous content: Imran Khan

Muslim countries failed to tackle blasphemous content: Imran Khan

Imran KhanIslamabad : Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has said that the absence of an international policy against the generation of blasphemous content is a “collective failure” on part of the Muslim countries.

Addressing the Senate for the first time as Prime Minister, Khan on Monday said his government will raise the matter before the UN, adding: “However, I do not think that would do much,” Dawn news reported.

The Senate had passed a resolution to bring the UN’s attention to the matter regarding the announcement by the leader of Dutch Freedom Party and Parliamentarian Geert Wilders to hold a competition of blasphemous caricatures.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office last week had called the charge d’affaires of the Netherlands to record a protest against the announcement by Wilders.

“Our government will raise the matter in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and ask the Muslim countries to come up with a collective policy that could then be brought up at international forums,” the Prime Minister said.

“This should have been done years ago,” he said while giving the example of the Holocaust and how four European countries have jail sentences for “anyone who misquotes the figures of Holocaust. That is because they realise that this is something that hurts the sentiments of the Jewish community”.

“We need a similar policy for this matter so that people do not repeatedly hurt our sentiments.”

—IANS

Imran Khan elected Pakistan’s 22nd Prime Minister

Imran Khan elected Pakistan’s 22nd Prime Minister

Imran KhanIslamabad : Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan was elected Pakistan’s 22nd Prime Minister by the country’s National Assembly on Friday, three weeks after his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won the highest number of seats in the general election.

Khan, 65, secured 176 votes out of the total 272 cast in polling in the lower house, while his opponent Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) got 96 votes, according to National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser.

The PTI chairman will be sworn in as Prime Minister on Saturday by President Mamnoon Hussain.

The announcement of Khan’s election came amid protests from opposition lawmakers who shouted slogans denouncing alleged electoral fraud during the July 25 election.

Addressing the house amid a ruckus by PML-N members and cheering by PTI legislators, a charged Khan said: “I promise my nation today that we will bring the tabdeeli (change) that this nation was starving for.

“We have to hold strict accountability in this country; the people who looted this country, I promise that I will work against them.”

“I did not climb on any dictator’s shoulders; I reached this place after struggling for 22 years. Only one leader struggled more than me and that was my hero, Jinnah.

“The money that was laundered, I will bring it back – the money that should have gone towards health, education, and water, went into people’s pockets,” said Khan, moving on to allegations of vote rigging. “I want to ask the people who are yelling here why they didn’t investigate the four constituencies that I asked for.”

“Why didn’t they investigate then? Why didn’t they hold people accountable? Why didn’t the (PML-N) government take action?”

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the third largest party in the house that joined the PML-N and others in an opposition alliance, withdrew its support for Shehbaz Sharif’s candidature as Premier, days before the election and abstained from voting, Dawn online reported.

One member of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), which contested elections under the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) banner, also abstained from voting for either candidate.

According to Geo News, among the first steps the PTI-led government aims to take is a reshuffling of the top federal and provincial bureaucracy under its first 100-day plan. The strategy was finalized in a top-level huddle attended by Khan and the senior party leadership on Thursday.

The reshuffle includes changing the chiefs of federal and provincial state institutions and officers previously appointed under political pressure.

Geo News cited sources as saying that Khan has also decided to change the heads of the Federal Board of Revenue, Railways, Pakistan International Airlines and a few other institutions.

Earlier, PTI leaders spoke about the merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the creation of South Punjab province and giving greater authority to the government in Balochistan, as a part of their plan.

—IANS

Muslim countries failed to tackle blasphemous content: Imran Khan

Imran Khan will have to tread on thin ice to form government in Pakistan

Imran KhanBy Vishnu Makhijani,

It would seem rather presumptuous on the part of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan to declare that he would take oath as the Prime Minister on August 11, after addressing the nation and sort of laying down his policies for the next five years — because he is still short of the half-way mark. For this, he might just be helped by the “deep state”.

The way things are stacked up now, the PTI, with 115 seats, is a little over 20 short of the halfway mark of the 269 seats contested in the National Assembly (the contest for three seats are to be held at a later stage). PTI’s tally may come down to 109 after those who contested from twin constituencies step down from one of the seats. The total number of seats in the Assembly are 342, with 70 of them reserved for religious minorities and women which are allocated in proportion to the winning numbers in contested seats.

The PTI will, of course get a fair number of the 70 seats reserved seats. But it will remain short of the simple majority. The PTI leadership has reportedly approached disparate groups like the PML-Quaid (PML-Q), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), as well as Independents, to shore up its numbers.

That is certainly treading on thin ice.

Take, for instance, the PML-Q, founded by its present chief, Shujaat Hussain, and Mian Muhammad Azhar — with an enormous leg-up from a certain Pervez Musharraf. The bulk of its members were initially in the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and broke away after the 1997 general elections to protest against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif turning it into a “family fiefdom”. Then, in 1999, it vociferously supported the military coup by the army chief, General Musharraf, after Sharif attempted to prevent his plane from landing at Karachi on his return from Colombo.

Thus, it was not surprising that the PML-Q should have been dubbed the “King’s Party” for the support it received from Musharraf during the 2002 general elections, enabling it to win 126 seats in the National Assembly with a 25.7 per cent vote share. However, its tally dropped to 60 seats in the 2008 general elections and further to two in 2013. It claimed four seats in the current polls.

Let’s now consider the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), a splinter group of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM) founded in 1964 by the charismatic Altaf Hussain, who has not been able to return to the country for decades from London due to a slew of cases related to murder, targeted killings, treason, inciting violence and hate speeches against him.

The MQM has for long ruled the southern Sindh province but is largely held responsible for the targeted killings of Mojahirs, the immigrants and their descendants who moved to Pakistan from different regions of India after the partition of the sub-continent in 1947. On the flip side, it does have 24 seats in the National Assembly.

The Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), a rag-tag group of disparate political parties, came together just ahead of the 2018 polls as a grouping opposed to Sindh’s ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and while it can flex its muscles at the provincial level, it hardly has a say at the national level.

As for the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), it comprises dissidents of the two PMLs and was formed just ahead of the general elections and has seven seats in the National Assembly.

Given the fractured verdict, cobbling together a coalition may be challenging for PTI, but not very difficult as it can offer the carrot of power to various parties and independents.

Assuming that the party is able to garner a majority, Imran Khan’s hands will be tied due to the various pulls and pressures of the alliance partners. Whether he will be able to provide basic governance, let alone even look at development and diplomacy, is to be seen.

Another worry for the PTI is the reports that the PML-N and PPP had agreed to formulate a “coordinated joint strategy” in the National Assembly. In the end, these might be mere pinpricks but they can have a debilitating effect on the government’s attempts to deliver.

Finally, there is the “deep state”. The Oxford Dictionary defines this as: “A body of people, typically influential members of government agencies or the military, believed to be involved in the secret manipulation or control of government policy.”

Logically, in Pakistan’s case, this would be driven by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency (under control of the Army), whose propensity for creating instability is all too well known on both sides of the border. Its moves will be closely watched by Pakistan’s principal political parties as also by India’s ruling establishment.

The question is: Will the new prime minister toe the line or will he be able to chalk out an independent policy. From all indications, Imran Khan would probably remain an establishment man.

(Vishnu Makhijani is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at vishnu.makhijani@ians.in)

—IANS

Afghanistan, not India, will be Imran Khan’s priority until 2019

Afghanistan, not India, will be Imran Khan’s priority until 2019

Imran Khan

Imran Khan

By Saeed Naqvi,

Even before elections in Pakistan had taken place, the media which articulates the Western establishment point of view, like the Economist, had already declared it a “flawed election”; it even screamed “foul play” which the “khaki umpire” (read the Army) had rigged.

If you will stand for a mixed metaphor, the “khaki umpire” is, these days, playing the monkey between two cats – the US and China. With Donald Trump and his Deep State apparently engaged in a savage fight to the finish, the balance of advantage must be seen to be with China. But the Chinese themselves are keeping their fingers on the China-Pakistan economic corridor.

Imran Khan has expressed reservations on transparency issues. On the other hand, there have been reports that thousands of Pakistani students, who in the past would have been westward bound, have entered Chinese schools of learning. Who knows, this may be the thin end of the wedge.

If the Chinese can decolonize the Pakistani mind to this extent, it must be time for the West to take note. But a sketch that sections of the Army and Imran Khan might be innately anti-
West can be overdrawn. Yes, Pakistan has choices other than the US which includes Russia, but this does not mean the Army will bite the hand that has fed it since its inception.

These are complex times and a durable phenomena like the “West” manifests itself in many forms. After all retired Pakistan armymen, like retirees elsewhere, do keep a steady gaze on post-retirement sinecures. A huge opportunity beckons Pakistan retired Army officers in Saudi Arabia.

The new Prime Minister will be pragmatic. He will not seek to impose a moral code on his armed forces. But he will draw some very firm red lines and these red lines will stretch from Pakhtunkhwa right through Afghanistan, the arena of his political baptism and purgatory. That is where he cannot be seen to be striking deals. His political turf will turn to ash if he does.

He should not be seen in the traditional Pathan-Punjabi balance. The brunt of the blowback from the Afghan war was borne by the Pathan region, true, but it was a national catastrophe. Let me explain.

Washington twisted Pervez Musharraf’s arm to turn upon those Mujahideen in Afghanistan whom Riyadh, Washington and Islamabad had reared to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. The blowback from the Afghan war singed Pakistan. The Lal Masjid fiasco in Islamabad aggravated an uncontrollable situation. The reverberations from that blowback have not ended yet. Remember, the public outcry was against Musharraf fighting “America’s war” against terrorism. It became all the more shrill when the two brothers controlling Lal Masjid, Ghazi Rashid and Maulana Aziz, led the chorus.

Let me fast forward to the latest American debacle in Syria and its possible impact on the Af-Pak region. When almost all the mercenary Islamists had been caught with their trousers down, the existential question arose: what to do with trained terrorists?

When animal lovers in Britain forced an end to the traditional foxhunt, the impulse reached India’s southern hill station of Ootacamund also. The same question arose: what to do with hundreds of pedigree hounds? Good sense dawned and the canines were kept in a deluxe kennel, then distributed among dog lovers. But what do the trainers do with terrorists, trained and tested in action, who have not only tasted blood but have begun to love it? Trained terrorists can only have one use: as assets against any Muslim society the “trainer” wishes to destabilize – Afghanistan, Xinxiang, the Caucasus and so on.

I can quote at least two recent US Presidents to prove my point. In an interview to Thomas Friedman in August 2014, President Barack Obama made a startling admission. Asked why he had not ordered air attacks against the Islamic State, when it first reared its head, Obama said: “that would have taken the pressure off Nouri al Maliki”, Iraq’s stubbornly anti-American, Shia Prime Minister. In other words, the IS advance from Mosul to Baghdad was facilitated to oust Nouri al Maliki, an outcome the US was excitedly waiting for. Maliki had to be punished for the affront of not signing the “Status of Forces agreement” with the US. Eventually Maliki was shown the door.

After having been briefed by the intelligence agencies, candidate Donald Trump told Jake Tapper of the CNN: “Where do you think have billions of dollars worth of arms – and cash – gone in the course of our involvement in Syria? To the extremists, of course, I believe so.” He has not budged from this position.

What should worry Imran Khan is the next stage: the transfer of trained terrorists from Syria to Northern Afghanistan. Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, told a Friday congregation in Tehran on January 30: “The US transfer of IS terrorists to Afghanistan is aimed at creating a justification for its (US’) continued presence in the region.” More recently, Russia’s Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Morgulov Igor Vladimirovich, told a high powered assembly at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi: “IS fighters were being flown to northern Afghanistan.” The Afghan air space is under the control of the US and the government in Kabul. “So who is responsible?” Vladimirovich asked.

Islamabad, Beijing, Moscow are all persuaded that Taliban will have to be part of the solution in Afghanistan. Americans have been marking time with the good Taliban, bad Taliban mantra because they clearly do not have a policy.

The moment is laden with irony for President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul. The emergence of a Pathan in Islamabad should have provided him with comfort. Instead he is having kittens: the Pathan on the other side has an agenda which is totally at cross purposes with Ghani’s. Imran’s agenda would boost his popularity in the country where Ghani, alas, has none. The moral is simple: no sidekick to a foreign power has ever been respected at home.

(A senior commentator on political and diplomatic affairs, Saeed Naqvi can be reached on saeednaqvi@hotmail.com. The views expressed are personal.)

—IANS