Geo-political tensions, earnings to drive equities (Market Outlook)

Geo-political tensions, earnings to drive equities (Market Outlook)

BSE, NSEBy Rohit Vaid,

Mumbai : The ongoing earnings results season, along with the heightened geo-political tensions in the Middle East and a key macro-economic inflation data point are expected to influence the Indian equity markets’ trajectory during the coming week, analysts opined.

“Next week the focus will again be on earnings, with IndusInd Bank setting the tone for bank earnings, especially on the fresh loan loss provisions,” Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.

“The oil prices would be watched closely for any flare-up due to geo-political (events). Some of the macro-data has been encouraging, which would keep the sentiment buoyant.”

Companies like ACC, Mindtree, Cyient and Tata Consultancy Services are expected to announce their fourth quarter (Q4) earning results in the coming week.

“The earnings recovery was elusive for the last few years, even though the market scaled new heights at every interval,” Vinod Nair, Head Of Research at Geojit Financial Services, told IANS.

“However, the last two quarters have given some ray of hope to investors for a pick-up in earnings given better-than-expected GDP growth and normalisation in GST implementation. Q4 PAT growth expectation for Nifty50 and Sensex companies is around 15 per cent YoY.”

According to D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director of SMC Investments & Advisors: “The upturn in the economy and a favourable base effect notwithstanding, the Q4FY18 earnings, particularly from FMCG companies, are expected to see a healthy growth.”

“Nifty is expected to move in the range of 10,300-10,600 points and Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 24,700-25,300 points.”

Besides the Q4 results, investors will look out for the upcoming macro-economic data points — Wholesale Price Index — on Monday. The Balance of Trade figures will also influence sentiments. The trade data was released after the close of market hours on Friday.

On technical levels, the underlying trend of the National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) Nifty50 remains bullish.

“Technically, the Nifty remains in uptrend and further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 10,618 points is taken out,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.

“Crucial support to watch for any weakness is at 10,276 points.”

Last week, the key Indian equity indices — the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex and the NSE Nifty50 — rose for the third consecutive week as healthy macro-economic data as well as fading global trade war fears boosted investors’ sentiments.

Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE surged by 565.68 points or 1.68 per cent to close at 34,192.65 points.

Similarly, the wider Nifty50 of the NSE)made healthy gains. It closed trade at 10,480.60 points — up 149 points or 1.44 per cent from its previous week’s close.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in )

—IANS

Global cues, index heavyweights lift equities; Nifty50 reclaims 10k

Global cues, index heavyweights lift equities; Nifty50 reclaims 10k

Market, Share Market, BSE, NSEMumbai : Positive global cues on the back of easing geo-political tensions, coupled with healthy buying in capital goods, banking and automobile stocks, lifted key Indian equity indices — the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty50 — during the mid-afternoon trade session on Monday.

Index heavyweights like Larsen and Toubro, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever and Coal India, among others, aided the indices in their bull run, said market observers.

The wider 51-scrip Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) reclaimed the 10,000-mark, which was breached on July 25 for the first time.

At 1.15 p.m., the Nifty50 traded at 10,010.35 points — up 75.55 points or 0.76 per cent.

The 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE, which opened at 31,798.31 points, traded at 31,893.17 points — up 205.65 points, or 0.65 per cent, from its previous close at 31,687.52 points.

The Sensex has so far touched a high of 31,926.74 points and a low of 31,797.89 points during intra-day trade.

The BSE market breadth was bullish — with 1,536 advances and 926 declines.

“The benchmark indices opened higher on Monday tracking positive signals from Asian markets after North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un decided to hold a party over the weekend rather than launch another missile. The Indian rupee opened marginally lower against the US dollar,” Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls, told IANS.

“Shares of gas distribution companies gained after the government renegotiated the pricing of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from Australia’s Gorgon project to save more than Rs 10,000 crore, which has shown positive impact on all the listed oil and gas stocks,” he added.

On Friday, the benchmark indices closed on a flat note — marginally in the green — buoyed by a strong rupee and good buying activities in capital goods stocks.

The Nifty50 was up 4.90 points, or 0.05 per cent, to close at 9,934.80 points, while the Sensex closed at 31,687.52 points — up 24.78 points, or 0.08 per cent.

—IANS

Equities skid on geo-poltical tensions, sell-off in banks, auto stocks

Equities skid on geo-poltical tensions, sell-off in banks, auto stocks

NSE, BSEMumbai : Negative Asian markets on the back of escalating geo-political tensions and heavy selling pressure in banking and auto stocks dragged key Indian equity indices — the NSE Nifty50 and the BSE Sensex — lower by almost one per cent each during the mid-afternoon trade session on Monday.

Around 12.40 p.m., the wider 51-scrip Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) fell by 79.60 points, or 0.80 per cent, to trade at 9,894.80 points.

The 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE, which opened at 31,932.20 points, traded at 31,658.18 points — down 234.05 points or 0.73 per cent from its previous close at 31,892.23 points.

The Sensex has so far touched a high of 31,932.20 points and a low of 31,560.32 points

The BSE market breadth was bearish with 1,724 declines and 725 advances.

“Indian equity benchmark indices edged lower in opening deals led by losses in pharma heavyweights Lupin, Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s Labs,” Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls, told IANS.

“Markets are back in the grip of a bear hug after North Korea’s nuclear bomb test on Sunday fanned the flames of geopolitical tensions. Stocks across Asia tumbled as investors rushed to safe haven assets,” he added.

On Friday, the benchmark indices closed on a higher note on hopes of a policy rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and broadly positive global cues.

The Nifty50 rose by 56.50 points, or 0.57 per cent, to close at 9,974.40 points, while the Sensex closed at 31,892.23 points — up 161.74 points or 0.51 per cent.

—IANS

Equities skid on geo-poltical tensions, sell-off in banks, auto stocks

Geo-political tensions, foreign fund outflows drag equity markets lower

NSE, BSEMumbai : Rising geo-political tension in East Asia along with foreign fund outflows and upcoming derivatives expiry dragged the key Indian equity indices — the NSE Nifty50 and the BSE Sensex — to close deep in the red on Tuesday.

The two key indices closed at their lowest levels in a week’s time as heavy selling pressure in banking, consumer durables and capital goods stocks weighed on markets’ sentiments and spanned four consecutive sessions of gains.

Consequently, the wider 51-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) closed at 9,796.05 points — down 116.75 points or 1.18 per cent.

Similarly, the 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE closed in the red. It opened at 31,724.84 points, closed at 31,388.39 points — down 362.43 points or 1.14 per cent from Monday’s close at 31,750.82 points.

The Sensex touched a high of 31,739.80 points and a low of 31,360.81 points during the intra-day trade.

Investors’ risk-taking appetite got eroded amid geo-political tensions in the Korean peninsula.

“Markets corrected sharply on Tuesday after a weak opening. The main indices lost over one per cent as weak European and Asian markets weighed on the market sentiments,” Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told IANS.

“The Sensex and Nifty hit one-week lows and all the major sectoral indices on the BSE closed in the red. Major Asian markets have ended on a negative note, barring the Shanghai index. European indices like FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 also traded lower.”

According to market observers, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, concerns of heavy floods in the financial capital and the selling by FIIs in equities over the past one month “ensured that risk appetite was down to a trickle, especially as Asian markets were in a sea of red following North Korea threats”.

“The speeding process of NPA resolution may provide some respite to the market ahead of the F&O expiry, after it managed to hold the crucial 60 DMA level,” James said.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee weakened by 11 paise to 64.02 to a US dollar from its previous close at 63.91.

In investments, provisional data with the exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrip worth Rs 1,459.64 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth Rs 1,391.33 crore.

“The selling pressure was broad-based with all the sectoral indices in the red,” said Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls.

“Banking, IT, Pharma and FMCG stocks led the sell off. Coal India, HDFC, Sun Pharma and Hindalco were down over 2 per cent.”

Sector-wise, all the 19 sub-indices of the BSE ended in the red, led by the S&P BSE banking index, which plunged by 290.54 points, followed by the S&P BSE consumer durables index, down 258.72 points and the capital goods index which edged-lower by 187.72 points.

The lone Sensex gainer on Tuesday was: Wipro, up 0.02 per cent at Rs 290.95.

On the other hand, major Sensex losers were: NTPC, down 2.80 per cent at Rs 168.50; Tata Motors (DVR), down 2.57 per cent at Rs 219.85; Sun Pharma, down 2.35 per cent at Rs 481.15; HDFC, down 2.20 per cent at Rs 1,727.85; and Reliance Industries, down 2.17 per cent at Rs 1,531.75.

—IANS

Equities skid on geo-poltical tensions, sell-off in banks, auto stocks

Equities rebound on easing geo-political tensions, DIIs inflows

NSE, BSEBy Porisma P. Gogoi,

Mumbai : Key Indian equity indices — the Sensex and the Nifty50 — rebounded from their five-week lows during the week ended Friday as sentiments were buoyed by easing global geo-political tensions and healthy buying in realty, metal and FMCG stocks.

According to market analysts, despite the reluctance observed in foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to pump in funds, continuous purchasing activities by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) kept the Indian markets afloat.

The indices, however, gave up a bulk of their gains on the last trading day (Friday) in the wake of a major corporate announcement — the resignation of a key managerial personnel at global software major Infosys. The IT sector suffered the most, with the S&P BSE IT index plunging by 369.19 points, or 3.53 per cent intra-day.

On a weekly basis, the 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE gained 311.09 points or 0.99 per cent to close at 31,524.68 points.

Meanwhile, the Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) closed at 9,837.40 points, gaining 126.6 points or 1.30 per cent.

“Markets witnessed a pullback rally this week, although a sell-off on Friday curbed the gains. Sectorally, the top gainers were the realty, metal and FMCG indices, while the top loser was the IT index,” Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told IANS.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said: “This bounce back was led by ease in tensions between North Korea and the US and the Fed’s dovish future outlook. Bargain hunting post healthy correction in mid and small-cap and DIIs inflows supported the up-move.”

Provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that FIIs sold stocks worth Rs 5,892.1 crore, while DIIs bought scrips worth Rs 4,369.26 crore during August 14-18.

“Markets in Asia were weak on Friday’s morning trade after the Wall Street closed weak amid Trump administration’s inability to follow through economic policy. Strength in the yen against the dollar also weighed on markets,” said Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls.

“In the Indian markets, as per technical charts, the Nifty has formed a spinning top pattern, which indicates that the bears were not in a mood to give up easily,” said Desai.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee closed the week on a flat note at 64.14 to a US dollar from its previous week’s close.

Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested equities worth Rs 6,804.47 crore, or $1.06 billion, during the week ended August 18.

“Broader markets continued to outperform as mid-caps and small-caps remained attractive to domestic liquidity after the profit-booking spells. Further, a major sell-off witnessed in IT major Infosys due to surprise resignation by Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and terrorist in Europe attack put market in cautious mood,” added Nair.

On Friday, scrips of Infosys plummeted almost 10 per cent, eroding over Rs 22,400 crore in the firm’s market capitalisation (m-cap) at the end of the day’s trade, post the resignation of Vishal Sikka as its CEO and Managing Director (MD). In the process, it pulled down two key market indices by almost one per cent.

Analysts pointed out that the fall in the company’s scrip was the biggest since early 2013. “Infosys shares fell as much as 13 per cent, on way to their steepest intra-day percentage loss since April 2013,” added Desai.

The top weekly Sensex gainers were: Tata Steel (up 3.45 per cent at Rs 625.40), Tata Motors (DVR)(up 3.23 per cent at Rs 227), ITC (up 3.19 per cent at Rs 281.80), Cipla (up 3.06 per cent at Rs 565.70) and Hero MotoCorp (up 2.47 per cent at Rs 3,982.75).

The losers were: Infosys (down 6.05 per cent at Rs 923.10), State Bank of India (down 6.04 per cent at Rs 278.65), Larsen and Toubro (down 2.46 per cent at Rs 1,131), ONGC (down 1.80 per cent at Rs 160.75) and Mahindra and Mahindra (down 1.31 per cent at Rs 1,371.15).

(Porisma P. Gogoi can be contacted at porisma.g@ians.in)

—IANS