by admin | May 25, 2021 | Markets, World
DUBAI : Global economic activity levels will remain significantly below normal during the third quarter (Q3) of 2020, despite the relaxation of the strictest Covid-19 pandemic social distancing measures, said Euromonitor International in a new report.
Under the baseline/most likely scenario, the global economy is headed for the worst global recession since the great depression of the 1930s, with global output set to contract by 3–6% in 2020, according to the latest Global Economic Forecasts.
A relatively strong expected recovery in 2021, with growth of 3.5–7%, would still leave global output in 2021 around 5.5% below pre-Covid-19 forecasts, it said.
Even in 2022, Euromonitor expects global output in the baseline / most likely scenario to be around 4.5% below the pre-Covid-19 forecast.
The 2020 global GDP growth baseline forecast has been downgraded by 1.5 percentage points compared to the May forecast, with a 1.2 percentage point downgrade for advanced economies and a 1.7 percentage point downgrade for developing economies. This mainly reflects the worse than expected economic effects of the pandemic in Western Europe, India and Latin America, which emerged during the summer as a new major centre of the pandemic, the report said.
The pandemic has worsened in developing economies, leading to greater than expected hits to economic activity in countries with big informal sectors and less scope for social distancing.
The August forecast also assumes more persistent social distancing effects in h2 2020, and more adverse effects on the productivity of businesses as they make adjustments to reduce Covid-19 infection risks (e.g. more resources devoted to hygiene and social distancing measures).
The level of uncertainty facing the global economy remains unprecedented, related to risks of further Covid-19 pandemic waves and possible delays in the production and wide distribution of a vaccine or treatment. The baseline forecast is only assigned a 41–51% probability, with the remainder going to more adverse Covid-19 pessimistic scenarios.
In the August global economic outlook, we have made a comprehensive revision of the Covid-19 pessimistic scenarios, based on more information and understanding about possible Covid-19 pandemic effects and risks since March 2020.
Recent shifts in the dynamics of the pandemic, especially in the US and Europe, raise concerns of a major second pandemic wave.
The Covid-19 pessimisticscenario is now the main global second wave scenario, featuring a much slower global recovery in 2021 compared to the baseline forecast. The baseline forecasts assume that a vaccine is available for widespread distribution around mid-2021. This is based on an unprecedented epidemiologic research effort with several promising candidates.
However, the previous fastest vaccine development took around 4 years. Complications in vaccine development and deployment could cause further risks to the baseline outlook, also captured by pessimistic scenarios.
“Our Covid-19 pessimistic scenarios have now been revised to account for risks of a more delayed roll-out of an effective Covid-19 vaccine or treatment in 2022–2023,” Euromonitor said in the report.
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Corporate, Opinions
Soroor Ahmed
AFTER praising to sky for so many years the so-called revolutionary development brought about by the Nitish Kumar government, especially in the health, infrastructure and education sectors the media has of late been gunning for the Bihar chief minister. Recent ‘surge’ in Corona Virus cases has prompted several private television channels to show the other and the more real side of the Bihar story.
This change has been observed since last summer when a mysterious epidemic spread in north Bihar, especially around Muzaffarpur. At least a couple of hundreds of children–mostly under 10–perished within a matter of two or three days. Unofficial death toll was many times more as the patients could not be brought to the hospital.
This disease was initially named Acute Encephilitis Syndrome but in the local parlance called ‘champi bokhara’. It is not that this epidemic struck for the first time in last few years; only the media reported it so widely in 2019, that is just after the Lok Sabha election victory. The coverage by media exposed the pathetic situation in Bihar.
Three months later the electronic media once again got an opportunity to highlight the fortnight long waterlogging of the upscale colonies of the state capital, Patna. This led to the enormous hardship to the people and property worth hundreds of crores was destroyed.
The visual of deputy chief minister of Bihar, Sushil Kumar Modi being rescued out of his own house in Patna’s posh, Rajendra Nagar Colony, is still fresh in the mind of the viewers. Since everything has political meaning and more so in Bihar–this change in media’s approach towards Nitish deserves an objective analysis.
True, there had been no Corona Virus like challenge in the past. Yet it is a fact that ever since Nitish became the chief minister on Nov 24, 2005 Bihar had witnessed many similar situation but they escaped the media’s attention for obvious reasons.
In the initial couple of years some works were initiated, but they were largely possible because of the generosity shown by the Manmohan Singh government. The truth is that the media has been giving undue credit to the state government which it never deserved.
A couple of years after becoming the chief minister, Nitish would invite media to highlight how great change his government has brought about in the rural health sector, especially the Primary Health Centres across the state. The media was quick to shower praise on chief minister for doing something unthinkable.
The reality was that the condition in premier health hubs , for example, Patna Medical College and Hospital, and other medical college hospitals had gone from bad to worse. Take the case of Patna’s PMCH, there were instances when it even lacked toilet soap and basic medicine, yet the media was busy only highlighting the big rise in the outdoor patients in the PHCs in the rural areas.
The truth is that this big change in the villages was possible only because of the central government’s National Rural Health Mission, for which the Manmohan government pumped hundreds of crores annually. Not to speak of doctors’ salary and medicine, even the money for the diesel used in generators in these rural health centres used to come from the Centre.
Instead Nitish was patted on the back for the work which he had hardly done. In contrast the medical college and hospitals, especially the two ones situated in Patna, witnessed repeated strikes by doctors leading to the deaths of hundreds of patients.Once Nitish’s loud-mouthed health minister, Ashwini Chaubey–now minister of state for health in the Modi cabinet–threatened striking doctors that their hands would be chopped off.
The media then conveniently ignored multi-crore infamous Uterus Scam, though the English Service of the BBC chose to send a special reporter to Bihar. A documentary was made on it. Similar was the condition of the infrastructure sector which really saw a big change. But that too was possible because of the central government’s Golden Quadrilateral and East-West Corridor projects.
The National Highway Authority of India too undertook several ambitious road construction projects. Besides, the then Union rural development minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh pumped hundreds of crores under MNREGA and Bihar got generous fund under the Pradhan Mantri Grameen Sadak Yojana, which changed the face of the state.
However, it is not that Nitish did nothing on this front. His government did build some state highways and urban roads. But he got many times more credit for whatever he had done in this sector. What the media also overlooked is the massive level of corruption in the construction sector. The recent collapse of a bridge built at the cost of over Rs 250 crore in Gopalganj district just 29 days after its inauguration by Nitish has only exposed this fact.
But this was not the first such case of any newly constructed structure collapsing in Bihar in his government. The media would in the past only underplay them.But Nitish started feeling the heat of the media after he parted ways from the BJP in June 2013. However, he once again started getting favourable media attention once he made a homecoming to the NDA on July 26, 2017.
But after the initial bonhomie one started observing that media started tightening its nose on the Bihar CM. Critics are of the view that this is a part of larger design to keep him in tight leash and not leave him unbridled. Though the media was slow in criticising Nitish Kumar government in the immediate post-lockdown weeks and the massive migrant labour crisis, the journalists, especially in Delhi have woken up that the health sector in Bihar has really worsened.
For this none else but Nitish Kumar and his ministers and leaders, of the BJP and JDU, are to be blamed. While the state government was busy extending lockdown and cracking down on the people the ruling combination leaders were busy holding election related meetings.
Soon a large number of leaders, office-bearers and workers of these two parties fell victim to Corona. They not only stopped there, but spread the virus in their respective families and localities and villages.This led to the massive surge in the number of cases. There was a big outcry among the masses over this double standards. The media was bound to cover such colossal failure.
Though both the parties were to be blamed for this utter disregard of rules and norms said by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it was Nitish who had to bear the brunt. There are no dearth of people in the BJP camp who are elated in seeing that Nitish is repeatedly being cut to size. This would suit the saffron brigade in the post-Assembly election scenario.
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The author is a Patna-based political commentator and author of “Jewish Obsession.”
by admin | May 25, 2021 | Muslim World
Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan attends a virtual meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Riyadh on July 18, 2020.
Ghazanfar Ali Khan
RIYADH – The G20 under the current presidency of Saudi Arabia will consider extending a debt payments suspension program for the poorest countries as financial policymakers from the world’s biggest economies continue to take “exceptional measures” to support debt-ridden nations and expedite global economic recovery. This was announced here on July 18 following a virtual meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors.
Saudi Arabia’s finance minister Mohammed Al Jadaan and the Kingdom’s central bank governor Ahmed Al Kholifey chaired the virtual meeting. Saudi Arabia has taken a global leadership role in combating Covid-19 pandemic and it stands firmly in unison with the international community, especially with the G20 member states, to deal with this international crisis, said a report released on this occasion.
Al-Jaadan said: “The world is still living through Covid-19 and there is a lot of uncertainty around, but I am optimistic as always. Saudi has weathered an even worse oil crisis in the past and worse geopolitical situation in the past and …we recovered strongly, as this is not going to be an exception… We are watching what’s happening in the world,” Al Jadaan said, highlighting that the G20 group is prioritizing its efforts to support the global economic recovery.
Referring to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), a joint communique released by the G20 after the meeting, he said: “We will consider a possible extension of the DSSI in the second half of 2020, taking into account the development of the Covid-19 pandemic situation.” The G20 group has made progress on the DSSI, which runs until the end of 2020. A total of 42 countries have requested support so far under the scheme, amounting to the deferral of an estimated $5.3 billion in debt repayments, the group said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group will send a report to the G20 in October explaining the financial conditions of the countries eligible for debt relief. There is, however, a need for “further progress and [the G20] strongly encourages private creditors to participate in the DSSI on comparable terms when requested by eligible countries”, the communique added. It is important to note here that the G20 member states agreed in April this year to a time-bound suspension of debt service to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.
The statement further said: “We are determined to continue to use all available policy tools to safeguard people’s lives, jobs and incomes, support global economic recovery, and enhance the resilience of the financial system, while safeguarding against downside risks.” Referring to the concerns raised by the World Bank that China, a member state of G20 and the largest creditor, was not participating fully, the G20 officials urged all bilateral creditors to implement the DSSI fully and honestly.
Saudi Arabia has already pledged $500 million to support global efforts to combat the pandemic. It has and urged other nations and organizations to help bridge an $8 billion financing gap. The Kingdom will also be providing SR10 million to help the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip combat the coronavirus, according to an initiative by the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Center (KSrelief). On the institutional level, the Kingdom is collaborating with various local and international organizations to contain the spread of this disease. Saudi Arabia has provided $10 million to the World Health Organization (WHO) as part of its efforts to combat the novel coronavirus.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Social Development Fund (SDB) has announced a package of more than $2.4 billion to help micro-enterprises and small businesses. The Saudi leadership has also taken care of its huge expatriate population, whose number exceeds 11 million including 2.7 million Indians living and working in Saudi Arabia. All expatriate workers have free access to the Kingdom’s health facilities for the treatment of coronavirus. They have also been exempted from paying a levy for renewal of their residence permits for several months.
All these measures and the generous allocations for funds have been commended by the international community, global organizations, and regional agencies. The Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member states hailed the efforts made by the Kingdom. On its part, the World Health Organization (WHO) praised Saudi Arabia for the financial aid it has granted to help international fight against the pandemic. Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, expressed his appreciations for King Salman for his contribution of $500 million to support the world in its battle against Covid-19.
