At the same time, Gulf states, if attacked, may not have the wherewithal of the Ukrainians if the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait is anything to go by. That drives home the Gulf states’ dependence on a third-party security guarantor in the absence of confidence-inspiring multilateral, regional arrangements.

Kuwaitis largely fled Kuwait at the time while a US-led coalition forced Iraq to withdraw. In the wake of Ukraine, Russia is too preoccupied to take on other major military commitments, and China would not entertain the idea. That leaves the US for the foreseeable as the Gulf states’ only alternative.

Viewed from Tehran, the post-US withdrawal world is a different world in which the United States has been humbled and removed from one of its borders.

It is a world where the Taliban-governed Afghanistan is a more immediate problem for Iran than the Gulf states.

In recent days, Iran has reportedly moved additional military forces, including the army’s 88th armored division, to its border with Afghanistan amid rising tensions with the Taliban.

Iranian officials say border guards have acted with “restraint” in the face of alleged provocative actions by Taliban forces.

The troops were ordered to the border after Pakistani militants, based in eastern Afghanistan,  stepped up their attacks inside Pakistan.

Last month, two Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan killed at least 40 people, including some civilians. The United Nations said that 20 children were among the dead. The strikes occurred against areas believed to have been from where militants had killed seven soldiers in Pakistan.

Pakistan hasn’t confirmed the airstrikes and declined to comment on the civilian deaths but said earlier that “terrorists were using Afghan soil with impunity to carry out activities inside Pakistan.”

Anti-Iranian protests in Herat and Kabul and the stabbing by an Afghan national of three clerics in Iran also fueled tensions between the two countries.

The incidents cast a shadow over Iranian efforts to capitalise on the fallout in Central Asia of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Taliban’s acting minister for refugees and repatriations, Khalilurahman Haqqani, is expected to visit Tehran in the coming days in an effort to reduce tensions.

“Yemen and Ukraine are not major headaches for Iran. Afghanistan is,” said an Arab diplomat.