New Delhi, Aug 31 : The India Meteorological Department on Thursday said that weak El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, however, positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to strengthen during the upcoming months.
“The latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) and other global model forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to intensify further and continue until early next year. Apart from the ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also have an influence on the Indian Monsoon,” the IMD said in its report.
“Currently, borderline positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from MMCFS and other global models indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to strengthen during the upcoming months,” it added.
The IMD further predicted that rainfall averaged over the entire country during September is likely to be normal (91-109 per cent of LPA). The Long Period Average (LPA) of rainfall over the country for September, based on data from 1971-2020, is about 167.9 mm.
“The forecast suggests that above-normal rainfall is most likely over many areas in northeastern India, adjoining eastern India, foothills of the Himalayas, and some areas of east-central and south peninsular India. However, the probability of normal to below-normal rainfall is highest over the remaining parts of the country. The white shaded areas within the land area represent climatological probabilities,” the report said.
“In September, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas in south peninsular India and a few pockets in west-central India, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are expected. Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas in extreme northern India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected,” it said.